Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.1#343
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.2% 5.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 18.1% 18.4% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 32.2% 32.7% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 52.2% 52.9% 12.5%
Top 6 Seed 66.1% 66.9% 23.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 87.3% 52.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.0% 81.7% 47.1%
Average Seed 4.3 4.3 6.9
.500 or above 96.3% 96.6% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 92.6% 70.7%
Conference Champion 39.8% 40.3% 12.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 3.4%
First Round85.8% 86.4% 50.5%
Second Round69.0% 69.6% 30.0%
Sweet Sixteen44.5% 45.0% 13.8%
Elite Eight26.9% 27.2% 6.3%
Final Four15.5% 15.7% 2.4%
Championship Game8.6% 8.7% 0.8%
National Champion4.6% 4.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 27 - 214 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-53 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 6   Villanova W 68-64 64%    
  Nov 15, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 86-60 99%    
  Nov 17, 2021 280   North Florida W 83-56 99%    
  Nov 22, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 75-58 93%    
  Nov 23, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 75-79 38%    
  Nov 27, 2021 145   @ UNLV W 74-61 86%    
  Dec 01, 2021 47   Colorado W 71-61 80%    
  Dec 05, 2021 95   @ Washington W 75-66 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 78   @ Marquette W 71-64 72%    
  Dec 15, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 86-49 99.9%   
  Dec 18, 2021 22   North Carolina W 75-71 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 305   Cal Poly W 81-53 99%    
  Dec 30, 2021 31   Arizona W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 01, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 79-68 82%    
  Jan 06, 2022 71   @ Stanford W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 113   @ California W 69-59 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 19   Oregon W 72-65 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 72-60 83%    
  Jan 20, 2022 88   @ Utah W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 47   @ Colorado W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 27, 2022 113   California W 72-56 90%    
  Jan 29, 2022 71   Stanford W 74-62 83%    
  Feb 03, 2022 31   @ Arizona W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 20   @ USC W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 17, 2022 69   Washington St. W 73-61 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 95   Washington W 78-63 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 19   @ Oregon W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. W 69-63 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 20   USC W 70-63 70%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.3 9.4 9.6 7.4 3.3 39.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.1 5.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.2 8.8 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.9 10.1 7.5 3.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
19-1 100.0% 7.4    7.3 0.2
18-2 94.3% 9.6    8.4 1.2 0.0
17-3 79.2% 9.4    7.0 2.2 0.1
16-4 52.6% 6.3    3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 25.1% 2.9    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 30.7 7.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.3% 100.0% 72.3% 27.7% 1.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 7.5% 100.0% 63.6% 36.4% 1.3 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.1% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.7 5.1 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.9% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 2.3 3.3 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.0% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 3.3 1.3 2.7 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 11.6% 99.6% 27.2% 72.3% 4.5 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 10.3% 98.2% 20.8% 77.4% 5.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.7%
13-7 8.8% 93.6% 15.3% 78.3% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 92.4%
12-8 7.2% 81.8% 10.4% 71.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 79.6%
11-9 5.5% 67.6% 6.9% 60.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.8 65.2%
10-10 4.2% 42.4% 4.4% 38.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 39.7%
9-11 2.9% 20.0% 2.7% 17.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 17.8%
8-12 2.0% 6.7% 1.6% 5.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 5.1%
7-13 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0%
6-14 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3%
5-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 86.7% 29.9% 56.7% 4.3 18.1 14.2 11.2 8.8 7.5 6.4 5.7 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 81.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.4 10.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 82.1 17.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4