Preseason Rankings
UMKC
Summit League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#233
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.8#355
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 13.2% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 44.3% 75.9% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 84.2% 61.3%
Conference Champion 6.1% 14.2% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.2% 2.3%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round5.6% 13.0% 4.5%
Second Round0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 106   @ Minnesota L 60-72 14%    
  Nov 12, 2021 39   @ Iowa L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 15, 2021 84   @ Missouri L 57-71 12%    
  Nov 22, 2021 236   @ Idaho St. L 59-62 40%    
  Nov 27, 2021 158   Morehead St. L 60-64 36%    
  Nov 28, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 10, 2021 316   Green Bay W 69-61 74%    
  Dec 12, 2021 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 66-63 61%    
  Dec 20, 2021 99   @ South Dakota St. L 64-76 16%    
  Dec 22, 2021 186   @ South Dakota L 64-70 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 344   Denver W 74-62 84%    
  Jan 06, 2022 274   @ Western Illinois L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 08, 2022 353   @ St. Thomas W 71-59 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 154   Oral Roberts L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 130   North Dakota St. L 61-64 39%    
  Jan 22, 2022 313   North Dakota W 69-61 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 344   @ Denver W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 326   @ Nebraska Omaha W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 03, 2022 353   St. Thomas W 74-56 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 274   Western Illinois W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 154   @ Oral Roberts L 66-74 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 313   @ North Dakota W 66-64 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 130   @ North Dakota St. L 58-67 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 186   South Dakota W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 99   South Dakota St. L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 3.5 1.7 0.2 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.0 3.6 0.9 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 6.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.7 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.5 3.9 1.1 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.6 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.1 11.3 9.9 7.7 5.6 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 87.7% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 51.7% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.1
14-4 21.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 67.1% 63.0% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.2%
17-1 0.8% 49.3% 47.9% 1.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.8%
16-2 1.8% 35.6% 35.3% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.4%
15-3 3.6% 27.8% 27.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.6
14-4 5.6% 18.7% 18.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 4.6
13-5 7.7% 12.6% 12.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 6.7
12-6 9.9% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 9.1
11-7 11.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.8
10-8 12.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.8
9-9 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.3
8-10 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.3
7-11 8.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-12 6.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.2 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%