Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#149
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#181
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 15.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 14.3
.500 or above 70.8% 76.0% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 74.3% 49.2%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.1% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.7% 9.1%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round13.3% 14.7% 5.2%
Second Round2.4% 2.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 79-68 85%    
  Nov 12, 2021 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-69 43%    
  Nov 15, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 87-71 92%    
  Nov 18, 2021 316   Green Bay W 76-66 80%    
  Nov 19, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 74-76 43%    
  Nov 21, 2021 273   Florida International W 77-70 73%    
  Nov 27, 2021 116   Vermont W 69-68 52%    
  Nov 30, 2021 217   Elon W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 11, 2021 23   @ Tennessee L 62-77 11%    
  Dec 14, 2021 239   @ Towson W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 16, 2021 229   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 29, 2021 309   @ Western Carolina W 78-71 71%    
  Jan 01, 2022 139   Wofford W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 05, 2022 109   Furman L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 218   @ VMI W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 13, 2022 272   @ The Citadel W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 15, 2022 155   @ Mercer L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 20, 2022 135   Chattanooga W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 255   Samford W 83-73 78%    
  Jan 26, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 02, 2022 218   VMI W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 109   @ Furman L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 10, 2022 272   The Citadel W 85-75 79%    
  Feb 13, 2022 155   Mercer W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 135   @ Chattanooga L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 255   @ Samford W 80-76 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 81-68 84%    
  Feb 27, 2022 141   East Tennessee St. W 70-67 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 4.2 3.4 1.9 0.6 15.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.1 4.0 1.5 0.2 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.2 9.6 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.5 7.9 5.7 3.6 1.9 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 93.7% 3.4    2.9 0.5
15-3 74.1% 4.2    2.8 1.3 0.1
14-4 43.0% 3.4    1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.2% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 10.2 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 83.1% 65.6% 17.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.9%
17-1 1.9% 66.2% 52.6% 13.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 28.7%
16-2 3.6% 51.5% 43.7% 7.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 13.8%
15-3 5.7% 37.1% 34.1% 3.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 4.5%
14-4 7.9% 28.1% 27.4% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.7 1.0%
13-5 9.5% 20.1% 20.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 0.1%
12-6 10.4% 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 9.0 0.0%
11-7 10.8% 9.3% 9.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.8
10-8 10.6% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.9
9-9 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.2
8-10 8.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
7-11 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 5.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.7% 12.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5 3.4 2.9 2.0 0.9 86.3 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 6.3 3.2 32.6 18.1 29.9 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 88.3% 5.6 21.7 23.3 21.7 10.0 11.7