Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.9% 6.0% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 12.6% 12.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 26.6% 26.9% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 39.7% 40.1% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.9% 68.5% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 63.0% 19.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 8.2
.500 or above 89.1% 89.6% 51.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 78.7% 42.7%
Conference Champion 17.7% 17.9% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 10.3%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 3.7%
First Round66.2% 66.8% 20.0%
Second Round46.1% 46.5% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen24.7% 25.0% 3.8%
Elite Eight12.9% 13.0% 1.0%
Final Four6.3% 6.4% 0.0%
Championship Game3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 117 - 10
Quad 45 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 86-62 99%    
  Nov 13, 2021 120   @ Temple W 72-65 75%    
  Nov 16, 2021 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 22, 2021 303   Dixie St. W 87-63 98%    
  Nov 25, 2021 193   Saint Joseph's W 82-67 90%    
  Dec 01, 2021 88   Utah W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 69   @ Washington St. W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 07, 2021 180   Eastern Kentucky W 86-69 92%    
  Dec 12, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 87-64 97%    
  Dec 15, 2021 111   UC Irvine W 74-62 84%    
  Dec 18, 2021 60   Georgia Tech W 71-66 64%    
  Dec 21, 2021 35   Oklahoma St. W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 30, 2021 61   Arizona St. W 79-71 74%    
  Jan 02, 2022 31   Arizona W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 06, 2022 113   @ California W 69-62 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 71   @ Stanford W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 13, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 19   Oregon W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 20, 2022 47   @ Colorado W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 22, 2022 88   @ Utah W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 27, 2022 71   Stanford W 73-64 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 113   California W 72-59 84%    
  Feb 03, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 12, 2022 3   UCLA L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 95   Washington W 78-67 81%    
  Feb 20, 2022 69   Washington St. W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 24, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 63-70 30%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 4.7 3.8 2.2 0.8 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 5.1 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.7 9.2 9.6 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.4 4.2 2.2 0.8 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.9% 2.2    2.2 0.1
18-2 91.7% 3.8    3.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 73.5% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
16-4 45.1% 3.6    1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.0% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 12.1 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 61.0% 39.0% 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.2% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.8 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.4% 99.9% 35.6% 64.3% 2.6 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 8.1% 99.7% 27.2% 72.5% 3.6 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 9.5% 99.4% 21.4% 78.0% 4.8 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
14-6 10.3% 97.2% 16.6% 80.5% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.6%
13-7 10.4% 92.1% 10.9% 81.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 91.1%
12-8 9.6% 79.3% 7.4% 71.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 77.6%
11-9 9.2% 60.5% 5.2% 55.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.6 58.4%
10-10 7.7% 37.8% 2.8% 35.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 4.8 36.0%
9-11 6.5% 14.5% 1.8% 12.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 13.0%
8-12 5.1% 3.8% 1.3% 2.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 2.5%
7-13 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.0%
6-14 2.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.3%
5-15 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.9% 14.5% 53.4% 5.8 5.9 6.7 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.2 5.9 4.9 4.6 4.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 62.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 67.9 29.8 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 8.3 7.9