Preseason Rankings
Utah
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#88
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#219
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 3.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.5% 6.6% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 22.3% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.0% 20.2% 4.7%
Average Seed 8.1 8.0 9.2
.500 or above 46.2% 52.7% 20.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 36.3% 14.9%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 14.7% 31.8%
First Four2.6% 3.0% 0.9%
First Round17.5% 20.8% 4.6%
Second Round9.1% 10.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 24 - 56 - 13
Quad 34 - 210 - 15
Quad 44 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 167   Abilene Christian W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 13, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 76-60 93%    
  Nov 15, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 84-58 99%    
  Nov 20, 2021 144   Boston College W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 27, 2021 38   BYU L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 01, 2021 20   @ USC L 65-75 19%    
  Dec 05, 2021 113   California W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 08, 2021 80   TCU L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 11, 2021 278   Manhattan W 75-60 89%    
  Dec 18, 2021 84   @ Missouri L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 21, 2021 138   Fresno St. W 72-65 71%    
  Dec 30, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 01, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 67-78 19%    
  Jan 06, 2022 95   Washington W 77-73 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 69   Washington St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 13, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 74-80 32%    
  Jan 15, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 20, 2022 3   UCLA L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 20   USC L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 26, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 95   @ Washington L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 03, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 19   Oregon L 70-75 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 47   @ Colorado L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 17, 2022 71   @ Stanford L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 113   @ California L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 24, 2022 31   Arizona L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 78-77 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 47   Colorado L 68-69 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.0 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.7 2.1 3.4 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.5 12th
Total 0.7 2.2 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.2 7.8 6.7 5.6 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 88.9% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
17-3 70.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.3% 99.3% 19.6% 79.8% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 2.1% 97.2% 13.5% 83.7% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.8%
14-6 3.1% 91.3% 10.1% 81.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 90.3%
13-7 4.2% 78.6% 7.2% 71.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 77.0%
12-8 5.6% 61.0% 5.2% 55.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 58.9%
11-9 6.7% 39.1% 2.8% 36.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 37.3%
10-10 7.8% 20.1% 1.5% 18.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.3 18.8%
9-11 9.2% 5.7% 0.8% 4.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 4.9%
8-12 9.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.7%
7-13 9.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0%
6-14 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
5-15 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.0
4-16 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-17 6.0% 6.0
2-18 4.1% 4.1
1-19 2.2% 2.2
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 18.9% 2.3% 16.6% 8.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1 17.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%