Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#72
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#130
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 3.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 6.8% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 30.3% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.3% 18.1% 3.5%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 11.1
.500 or above 84.4% 87.8% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 86.6% 65.6%
Conference Champion 17.6% 19.0% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four3.9% 4.2% 1.3%
First Round25.9% 28.2% 8.3%
Second Round12.7% 13.9% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 36 - 210 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 208   UC Davis W 79-66 89%    
  Nov 12, 2021 57   Richmond L 71-73 44%    
  Nov 18, 2021 187   Penn W 76-67 77%    
  Nov 27, 2021 224   Texas Arlington W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 02, 2021 49   St. Mary's W 66-65 52%    
  Dec 08, 2021 38   @ BYU L 69-76 29%    
  Dec 11, 2021 298   New Orleans W 87-69 93%    
  Dec 15, 2021 129   @ Weber St. W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 18, 2021 39   Iowa L 74-78 39%    
  Dec 21, 2021 220   Portland St. W 80-66 87%    
  Dec 28, 2021 306   @ Air Force W 72-59 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 87-67 95%    
  Jan 04, 2022 76   Boise St. W 74-70 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 240   @ New Mexico W 74-65 76%    
  Jan 12, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 156   Wyoming W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 18, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 26, 2022 42   San Diego St. L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 01, 2022 306   Air Force W 75-56 93%    
  Feb 05, 2022 145   UNLV W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 08, 2022 156   @ Wyoming W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2022 63   Nevada W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 15, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 22, 2022 240   New Mexico W 77-62 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 51   Colorado St. W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 04, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. W 84-70 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.1 5.0 3.0 1.0 17.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.2 6.1 3.3 0.6 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.9 5.7 1.8 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.3 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.4 12.5 10.7 8.5 5.6 3.0 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.2
16-2 88.9% 5.0    3.8 1.2 0.0
15-3 59.7% 5.1    2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 25.8% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
13-5 5.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 11.2 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 99.8% 61.0% 38.8% 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-1 3.0% 96.2% 48.7% 47.5% 5.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.7%
16-2 5.6% 87.4% 39.2% 48.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 79.3%
15-3 8.5% 71.8% 31.5% 40.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 58.8%
14-4 10.7% 50.3% 21.6% 28.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.3 36.6%
13-5 12.5% 30.0% 14.5% 15.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 18.1%
12-6 12.4% 16.4% 10.1% 6.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 7.0%
11-7 11.9% 8.6% 6.4% 2.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 2.4%
10-8 10.2% 4.5% 4.1% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.4%
9-9 8.3% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.1%
8-10 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-11 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.9% 13.8% 14.0% 9.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.8 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 72.1 16.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 45.0 38.5 13.8 1.3 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 19.7 33.1 32.6 10.7 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 12.9 43.5 21.0 11.3 11.3