Preseason Rankings
Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.5% 4.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 17.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 16.1% 1.1%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 9.0
.500 or above 50.0% 50.4% 9.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 31.1% 5.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 14.9% 41.8%
First Four2.5% 2.6% 0.0%
First Round15.9% 16.0% 1.5%
Second Round8.1% 8.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 2.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 23 - 45 - 12
Quad 35 - 210 - 15
Quad 45 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 14, 2021 174   Texas St. W 70-61 79%    
  Nov 17, 2021 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 20, 2021 143   Winthrop W 82-75 73%    
  Nov 24, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 72-73 47%    
  Nov 29, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 93-60 99.8%   
  Dec 04, 2021 62   @ SMU L 72-78 31%    
  Dec 07, 2021 120   Temple W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 10, 2021 46   Loyola Chicago L 66-67 45%    
  Dec 18, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 81-65 90%    
  Dec 23, 2021 202   Hawaii W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 04, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 72-83 19%    
  Jan 08, 2022 104   South Carolina W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 11, 2022 14   Kentucky L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 15, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 18, 2022 23   Tennessee L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 33   @ Florida L 69-78 23%    
  Jan 26, 2022 104   @ South Carolina L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 133   Georgia W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 02, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 68-80 17%    
  Feb 05, 2022 36   LSU L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 08, 2022 84   Missouri W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 16, 2022 26   @ Auburn L 72-82 22%    
  Feb 19, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 22, 2022 15   Alabama L 77-83 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 56   @ Mississippi St. L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 01, 2022 33   Florida L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 66   @ Mississippi L 65-71 33%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 10.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.9 2.3 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.6 14th
Total 0.9 2.5 4.8 7.4 9.4 11.0 11.5 11.2 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 95.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 57.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 31.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.8% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.6% 98.4% 16.6% 81.8% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
13-5 2.7% 93.9% 11.1% 82.8% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.1%
12-6 3.8% 81.2% 5.7% 75.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 80.1%
11-7 5.6% 64.7% 3.9% 60.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 63.2%
10-8 7.2% 39.2% 1.8% 37.4% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 38.1%
9-9 8.8% 19.3% 0.9% 18.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.1 18.5%
8-10 10.3% 5.3% 0.4% 4.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.7 4.8%
7-11 11.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.8%
6-12 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.2%
5-13 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 9.4% 9.4
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 17.2% 1.5% 15.7% 8.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 82.8 15.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0