Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.3#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.7#338
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 4.0% 0.4%
#1 Seed 14.8% 15.0% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 27.7% 28.0% 2.9%
Top 4 Seed 46.6% 47.1% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 60.4% 61.0% 14.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.6% 83.1% 41.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.7% 76.4% 35.8%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 7.4
.500 or above 92.6% 93.1% 58.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 89.9% 61.9%
Conference Champion 38.5% 38.8% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 4.9%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 3.3%
First Round81.5% 82.0% 40.5%
Second Round63.4% 63.9% 24.4%
Sweet Sixteen39.2% 39.6% 9.4%
Elite Eight22.7% 22.9% 4.9%
Final Four12.4% 12.6% 1.6%
Championship Game6.7% 6.7% 0.9%
National Champion3.5% 3.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 27 - 213 - 8
Quad 36 - 119 - 9
Quad 44 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 242   Mount St. Mary's W 74-50 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 64-68 36%    
  Nov 16, 2021 332   Howard W 91-60 99.6%   
  Nov 20, 2021 23   Tennessee W 69-66 60%    
  Nov 28, 2021 210   @ La Salle W 77-61 90%    
  Dec 01, 2021 187   @ Penn W 76-62 88%    
  Dec 04, 2021 193   Saint Joseph's W 84-63 96%    
  Dec 07, 2021 44   Syracuse W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 12, 2021 9   @ Baylor L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 17, 2021 48   @ Creighton W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 21, 2021 37   Xavier W 74-66 74%    
  Dec 29, 2021 120   Temple W 75-59 90%    
  Jan 01, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 05, 2022 48   Creighton W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 74-65 76%    
  Jan 12, 2022 37   @ Xavier W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 16, 2022 64   Butler W 70-59 80%    
  Jan 19, 2022 78   Marquette W 74-62 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 112   DePaul W 77-62 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 52   St. John's W 80-70 78%    
  Feb 02, 2022 78   @ Marquette W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 25   Connecticut W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 08, 2022 52   @ St. John's W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 15, 2022 65   @ Providence W 69-64 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 86   Georgetown W 77-64 84%    
  Feb 22, 2022 25   @ Connecticut W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 01, 2022 65   Providence W 72-61 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 64   @ Butler W 67-62 64%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 7.0 8.8 8.5 6.2 2.7 38.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.8 5.9 4.0 1.8 0.3 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.4 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.5 11.2 11.2 10.6 8.8 6.2 2.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
19-1 100.0% 6.2    6.1 0.1
18-2 96.6% 8.5    7.8 0.7 0.0
17-3 83.2% 8.8    6.9 1.9 0.1
16-4 62.1% 7.0    4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 32.8% 3.7    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0
14-6 12.3% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 38.5% 38.5 29.7 7.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.7% 100.0% 73.4% 26.6% 1.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 6.2% 100.0% 63.3% 36.7% 1.4 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.8% 100.0% 54.3% 45.7% 1.8 4.2 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.6% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 2.4 2.6 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.2% 99.8% 36.3% 63.5% 3.3 1.2 2.6 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 11.2% 99.3% 27.3% 72.0% 4.6 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
14-6 10.5% 97.6% 21.5% 76.1% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.0%
13-7 9.1% 92.5% 15.5% 77.0% 7.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 91.1%
12-8 7.9% 80.9% 13.5% 67.4% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 78.0%
11-9 6.3% 64.3% 9.4% 55.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 60.6%
10-10 4.9% 40.1% 7.0% 33.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 35.5%
9-11 3.6% 16.7% 3.2% 13.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 13.9%
8-12 2.5% 5.6% 2.1% 3.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.6%
7-13 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.4%
6-14 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 82.6% 28.5% 54.2% 4.6 14.8 12.9 10.7 8.2 7.4 6.5 5.7 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 75.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2