Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#93
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#288
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.2% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.9
.500 or above 44.9% 57.4% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 50.3% 28.4%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.5% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 8.2% 19.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round4.4% 5.9% 2.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 319   @ Presbyterian W 74-71 62%    
  Nov 20, 2021 246   @ Marist L 70-71 47%    
  Nov 24, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 25, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 85-77 76%    
  Nov 26, 2021 298   @ New Orleans W 84-83 55%    
  Dec 03, 2021 307   @ Portland W 82-80 57%    
  Dec 05, 2021 179   @ Seattle L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 11, 2021 225   Gardner-Webb W 77-73 61%    
  Dec 14, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest L 69-80 19%    
  Dec 22, 2021 329   @ Hampton W 82-77 65%    
  Dec 29, 2021 139   @ Wofford L 70-78 26%    
  Jan 01, 2022 109   Furman L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 05, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-77 27%    
  Jan 08, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 13, 2022 155   @ Mercer L 73-80 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 272   @ The Citadel W 86-85 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 255   Samford W 86-81 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 135   Chattanooga L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 109   @ Furman L 71-81 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 141   East Tennessee St. L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 02, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 04, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 10, 2022 155   Mercer L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 272   The Citadel W 88-82 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 255   @ Samford L 83-84 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 135   @ Chattanooga L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 23, 2022 139   Wofford L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 81-79 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.5 1.5 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.0 10th
Total 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.1 9.0 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.0 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 76.4% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 45.8% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 81.0% 58.2% 22.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.5%
17-1 0.3% 60.3% 51.7% 8.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.8%
16-2 0.9% 39.8% 35.4% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 6.9%
15-3 1.6% 33.2% 32.3% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.3%
14-4 2.8% 20.6% 20.4% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.3%
13-5 4.1% 15.7% 15.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.5
12-6 5.7% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.1
11-7 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.9
10-8 8.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.4
9-9 10.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.7
8-10 11.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 11.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.9
6-12 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.8
5-13 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.9
4-14 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 5.0% 5.0
2-16 3.2% 3.2
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 95.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 14.3 16.7 35.7 33.3
Lose Out 0.1%