Preseason Rankings
Washington St.
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#69
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#208
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 6.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 11.4% 11.5% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 33.8% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.7% 30.9% 3.7%
Average Seed 7.7 7.7 9.2
.500 or above 68.9% 69.3% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.5% 48.8% 11.6%
Conference Champion 4.5% 4.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 9.3% 36.9%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 0.8%
First Round31.4% 31.6% 4.7%
Second Round17.3% 17.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.9% 7.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight2.9% 2.9% 0.3%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 84-58 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 179   Seattle W 78-66 85%    
  Nov 15, 2021 97   UC Santa Barbara W 72-66 70%    
  Nov 18, 2021 341   @ Idaho W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 22, 2021 143   Winthrop W 80-71 79%    
  Nov 27, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 82-68 89%    
  Dec 01, 2021 61   @ Arizona St. L 74-78 38%    
  Dec 04, 2021 20   USC L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 08, 2021 129   Weber St. W 80-71 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 99   South Dakota St. W 78-75 59%    
  Dec 15, 2021 102   New Mexico St. W 69-63 69%    
  Dec 18, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 77-64 86%    
  Dec 22, 2021 76   Boise St. W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 29, 2021 95   Washington W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 06, 2022 47   @ Colorado L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 88   @ Utah L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 12, 2022 71   Stanford W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 15, 2022 113   California W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 20, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 66-75 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 26, 2022 88   Utah W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 30, 2022 47   Colorado W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 03, 2022 71   @ Stanford L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 113   @ California W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 31   Arizona L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 61-73 17%    
  Feb 20, 2022 20   @ USC L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 95   @ Washington L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 03, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 05, 2022 19   Oregon L 69-72 43%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.6 9.4 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.0 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 86.1% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 65.8% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 38.9% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.9% 99.6% 19.2% 80.4% 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 3.9% 98.3% 14.4% 83.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
14-6 5.4% 93.5% 10.9% 82.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.7%
13-7 6.9% 82.3% 6.8% 75.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 81.0%
12-8 8.0% 66.7% 4.6% 62.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.7 65.1%
11-9 9.1% 45.9% 3.6% 42.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 4.9 43.8%
10-10 9.2% 25.7% 1.7% 23.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 6.9 24.4%
9-11 9.5% 9.7% 1.0% 8.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.6 8.8%
8-12 9.4% 2.4% 0.4% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 2.0%
7-13 8.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.1%
6-14 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 6.0
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 33.6% 4.2% 29.4% 7.7 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.4 30.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.6 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0