Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.5#39
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 29.8% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.2 12.7 14.0
.500 or above 79.7% 91.0% 69.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 93.3% 81.3%
Conference Champion 28.4% 37.3% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round22.1% 29.2% 15.8%
Second Round4.2% 6.6% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 162   @ Duquesne L 76-77 47%    
  Nov 18, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 82-83 47%    
  Nov 19, 2021 199   Ball St. W 82-78 65%    
  Nov 21, 2021 316   Green Bay W 82-71 83%    
  Nov 27, 2021 303   @ Dixie St. W 87-80 73%    
  Dec 02, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 80-65 90%    
  Dec 04, 2021 220   Portland St. W 84-75 76%    
  Dec 08, 2021 69   @ Washington St. L 71-80 24%    
  Dec 15, 2021 72   Utah St. L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 18, 2021 38   BYU L 75-81 32%    
  Dec 23, 2021 138   Fresno St. W 76-72 61%    
  Dec 30, 2021 204   @ Montana St. W 79-77 54%    
  Jan 01, 2022 161   @ Montana L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 08, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 13, 2022 341   Idaho W 85-67 93%    
  Jan 15, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 87-79 75%    
  Jan 20, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 24, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 79-83 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 201   @ Northern Colorado W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 287   @ Sacramento St. W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 161   Montana W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 204   Montana St. W 82-74 72%    
  Feb 10, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington W 84-82 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 82-70 83%    
  Feb 17, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 24, 2022 220   @ Portland St. W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 77-68 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 122   Southern Utah W 82-80 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.3 7.1 6.6 4.3 1.8 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 6.0 4.8 2.2 0.5 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.6 10.1 10.8 11.1 10.7 9.3 7.0 4.3 1.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.2 0.1
18-2 93.4% 6.6    5.7 0.8 0.0
17-3 76.0% 7.1    5.1 1.8 0.1
16-4 49.8% 5.3    2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 23.2% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1
14-6 5.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 20.7 6.3 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 80.3% 65.6% 14.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 42.7%
19-1 4.3% 66.6% 59.6% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 17.2%
18-2 7.0% 51.7% 48.8% 2.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 5.7%
17-3 9.3% 40.5% 39.8% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.5 1.2%
16-4 10.7% 32.9% 32.7% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 7.2 0.3%
15-5 11.1% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 8.4 0.0%
14-6 10.8% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 8.9
13-7 10.1% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 8.8
12-8 8.6% 8.7% 8.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.9
11-9 7.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.8
10-10 6.0% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.7
9-11 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
8-12 3.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.2
7-13 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.7% 21.9% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 3.4 5.2 5.3 4.0 2.0 77.3 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 1.2 4.7 20.3 29.3 21.5 16.3 3.6 2.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 87.4% 5.9 6.3 12.6 30.6 12.6 5.4 7.2 6.3 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 69.0% 6.4 6.9 6.9 24.1 23.0 8.0