Preseason Rankings
Wyoming
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.7#108
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.3% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 13.2
.500 or above 50.0% 59.4% 25.9%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 50.8% 28.4%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.5% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 3.9% 10.3%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round3.2% 4.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 42 - 9
Quad 33 - 45 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 80-74 72%    
  Nov 14, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-59 98%    
  Nov 18, 2021 95   @ Washington L 73-81 24%    
  Nov 22, 2021 142   @ Grand Canyon L 69-73 36%    
  Nov 29, 2021 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 81-80 54%    
  Dec 02, 2021 344   Denver W 87-70 92%    
  Dec 04, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 84-69 89%    
  Dec 08, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 67-82 11%    
  Dec 11, 2021 209   Utah Valley W 80-74 68%    
  Dec 22, 2021 71   Stanford L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 01, 2022 76   Boise St. L 73-77 39%    
  Jan 04, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 72-83 19%    
  Jan 08, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 11, 2022 42   San Diego St. L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 69-79 21%    
  Jan 18, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 87-74 85%    
  Jan 22, 2022 240   New Mexico W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 25, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 70-80 23%    
  Jan 28, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 31, 2022 51   Colorado St. L 73-79 32%    
  Feb 08, 2022 72   Utah St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. W 84-77 71%    
  Feb 15, 2022 240   @ New Mexico W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 306   Air Force W 75-63 82%    
  Feb 23, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 70-82 18%    
  Feb 26, 2022 63   Nevada L 75-80 34%    
  Mar 02, 2022 145   @ UNLV L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 05, 2022 138   Fresno St. W 72-70 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.2 5.6 2.0 0.2 15.1 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 5.7 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.1 8.4 10.4 11.5 12.0 11.1 9.8 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.5% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 87.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
15-3 62.1% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 81.3% 31.2% 50.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 72.8%
16-2 0.7% 61.6% 26.3% 35.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 47.9%
15-3 1.4% 38.1% 19.2% 18.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 23.4%
14-4 2.6% 20.1% 13.5% 6.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 7.6%
13-5 4.3% 11.7% 9.4% 2.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 2.5%
12-6 6.0% 5.5% 4.9% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.7%
11-7 8.2% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.1%
10-8 9.8% 1.9% 1.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
9-9 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0%
8-10 12.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
7-11 11.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 8.4% 8.4
4-14 6.1% 6.1
3-15 4.0% 4.0
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 96.7 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 58.8 20.6 20.6