Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#148
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 7.8% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.5% 18.0% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 27.9% 28.7% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.4% 56.7% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.9% 51.2% 15.0%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 8.3
.500 or above 79.4% 80.7% 39.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 68.1% 32.9%
Conference Champion 13.3% 13.7% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.4% 17.5%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 1.8%
First Round53.8% 55.0% 16.0%
Second Round34.3% 35.2% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen16.8% 17.3% 2.7%
Elite Eight7.9% 8.1% 1.5%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 0.5%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.1%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 36 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 250   Niagara W 79-60 97%    
  Nov 12, 2021 132   Kent St. W 81-69 87%    
  Nov 18, 2021 12   Ohio St. L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 21, 2021 291   Norfolk St. W 82-60 97%    
  Nov 24, 2021 127   Iowa St. W 79-70 77%    
  Nov 26, 2021 34   Virginia Tech L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 01, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 90-69 96%    
  Dec 05, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 08, 2021 199   Ball St. W 83-67 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 90   Cincinnati W 79-70 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 76-62 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 78   Marquette W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 21, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 66-74 26%    
  Dec 28, 2021 25   Connecticut W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 04, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 07, 2022 64   @ Butler L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 12, 2022 6   Villanova L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 48   Creighton W 76-71 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 23, 2022 78   @ Marquette W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 65   Providence W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 48   @ Creighton L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 02, 2022 64   Butler W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 112   DePaul W 79-69 79%    
  Feb 09, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 16, 2022 52   St. John's W 82-77 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 25   @ Connecticut L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 23, 2022 65   @ Providence W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 02, 2022 52   @ St. John's L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 86   Georgetown W 78-70 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.2 2.4 1.2 0.3 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.6 4.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.4 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.2 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.2 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 94.2% 2.4    2.1 0.3 0.0
17-3 78.2% 3.2    2.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 54.4% 3.2    1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.0% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 63.9% 36.1% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 52.1% 47.9% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.5% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 36.5% 63.4% 2.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 5.8% 99.7% 28.8% 71.0% 3.8 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 7.2% 99.2% 21.8% 77.4% 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
14-6 8.2% 96.6% 16.8% 79.8% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.9%
13-7 9.3% 90.0% 11.2% 78.8% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 88.8%
12-8 9.6% 78.5% 7.7% 70.8% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 76.7%
11-9 9.6% 57.7% 6.1% 51.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 4.1 54.9%
10-10 9.0% 36.9% 3.3% 33.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 5.7 34.8%
9-11 8.2% 14.5% 2.0% 12.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 12.7%
8-12 7.1% 4.4% 1.0% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 3.4%
7-13 5.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.6%
6-14 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.4% 11.1% 44.4% 6.4 3.3 4.2 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.6 49.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 59.4 40.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0