St. Thomas
Summit League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#265
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#214
Pace64.7#279
Improvement-2.0#349

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#160
First Shot+2.3#97
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#301
Layup/Dunks-2.5#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#36
Freethrows+2.0#46
Improvement-2.2#361

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#335
First Shot-6.2#348
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#167
Layups/Dunks-3.5#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#263
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement+0.3#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 70.0% 85.8% 55.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.2% 60.5% 25.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.1% 2.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 412 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 11   @ Creighton L 60-72 2%     0 - 1 +6.3 -0.9 +6.6
  Nov 11, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 83-61 71%     1 - 1 +10.7 +8.1 +4.0
  Nov 13, 2022 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 84-48 82%     2 - 1 +20.9 +11.0 +12.4
  Nov 17, 2022 190   @ Montana L 59-78 25%     2 - 2 -17.4 -12.3 -6.0
  Nov 18, 2022 149   Troy W 78-76 27%     3 - 2 +2.9 +9.6 -6.6
  Nov 19, 2022 337   Merrimack W 72-61 69%     4 - 2 +0.2 +15.3 -12.7
  Nov 23, 2022 213   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-72 28%     5 - 2 +4.5 +2.9 +1.5
  Nov 26, 2022 49   @ Utah L 66-95 6%     5 - 3 -16.4 +4.7 -22.6
  Dec 08, 2022 121   @ Montana St. L 65-82 16%     5 - 4 -11.7 -4.2 -7.4
  Dec 10, 2022 284   @ Idaho St. W 76-70 44%     6 - 4 +2.1 +6.9 -4.3
  Dec 13, 2022 362   Green Bay W 82-61 91%     7 - 4 +1.0 +5.7 -3.0
  Dec 19, 2022 322   North Dakota W 75-62 73%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.2 +11.6 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2022 242   North Dakota St. W 78-68 55%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +3.2 +7.7 -3.6
  Dec 29, 2022 275   @ South Dakota L 84-92 41%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -11.2 +5.1 -16.1
  Dec 31, 2022 200   @ South Dakota St. L 64-71 26%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -5.9 -7.4 +1.5
  Jan 05, 2023 319   Denver W 81-71 71%     10 - 6 3 - 2 -1.4 +5.5 -6.3
  Jan 07, 2023 310   Nebraska Omaha W 80-68 70%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +1.2 +0.8 +0.4
  Jan 12, 2023 259   @ UMKC L 60-81 38%     11 - 7 4 - 3 -23.4 -6.9 -18.2
  Jan 14, 2023 73   @ Oral Roberts L 69-81 8%     11 - 8 4 - 4 -2.0 +0.8 -3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 253   @ Western Illinois L 56-60 37%     11 - 9 4 - 5 -6.1 -9.6 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2023 200   South Dakota St. W 60-54 45%     12 - 9 5 - 5 +1.7 -7.9 +10.2
  Jan 28, 2023 275   South Dakota L 67-81 62%     12 - 10 5 - 6 -22.6 -10.7 -12.3
  Feb 02, 2023 310   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 319   @ Denver W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 73   Oral Roberts L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 11, 2023 259   UMKC W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 253   Western Illinois W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 23, 2023 242   @ North Dakota St. L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 25, 2023 322   @ North Dakota W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 2.6 0.5 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 5.9 1.4 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.7 8.8 3.9 0.2 13.6 4th
5th 0.3 7.8 10.8 0.8 19.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.8 13.9 2.9 0.1 21.7 6th
7th 2.8 11.3 5.3 0.1 19.5 7th
8th 0.5 4.2 3.6 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 1.6 8.5 20.0 27.8 24.9 12.5 4.2 0.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 0.5
11-7 4.2% 4.2
10-8 12.5% 12.5
9-9 24.9% 24.9
8-10 27.8% 27.8
7-11 20.0% 20.0
6-12 8.5% 8.5
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5%
Lose Out 1.6%