UMKC
Summit League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#259
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#276
Pace62.2#326
Improvement+0.5#122

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#310
First Shot-7.1#347
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#27
Layup/Dunks-5.0#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#314
Freethrows+1.7#59
Improvement+0.6#85

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#197
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#361
Layups/Dunks+3.6#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#143
Freethrows-2.8#341
Improvement+0.0#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.6% 10.2% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 88.5% 58.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 48 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 106   @ LSU L 63-74 14%     0 - 1 -4.4 -9.0 +5.1
  Nov 11, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 48-86 3%     0 - 2 -21.1 -18.3 -0.4
  Nov 17, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 53-69 4%     0 - 3 -0.5 -7.7 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2022 104   Toledo W 83-71 19%     1 - 3 +16.1 +10.4 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2022 117   Indiana St. W 63-61 23%     2 - 3 +4.7 -6.1 +10.9
  Nov 23, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 59-73 31%     2 - 4 -14.0 -4.6 -11.7
  Nov 26, 2022 238   SIU Edwardsville L 54-64 56%     2 - 5 -16.7 -19.4 +2.7
  Nov 29, 2022 283   Idaho St. L 65-75 66%     2 - 6 -19.3 -5.8 -14.6
  Dec 03, 2022 352   Lindenwood W 61-47 84%     3 - 6 -2.0 -13.2 +12.3
  Dec 06, 2022 43   @ Oklahoma L 53-75 5%     3 - 7 -8.7 -9.3 -1.1
  Dec 10, 2022 362   @ Green Bay L 64-70 81%     3 - 8 -20.6 -12.2 -8.8
  Dec 19, 2022 286   South Dakota W 62-45 66%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +7.6 -2.5 +14.3
  Dec 29, 2022 318   @ Denver L 83-85 3OT 53%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -7.9 -8.3 +0.7
  Dec 31, 2022 310   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-59 51%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +10.7 +7.1 +5.5
  Jan 07, 2023 69   @ Oral Roberts L 71-74 8%     5 - 10 2 - 2 +7.9 +6.7 +1.0
  Jan 12, 2023 266   St. Thomas W 81-60 62%     6 - 10 3 - 2 +12.7 +7.3 +7.2
  Jan 14, 2023 256   Western Illinois L 52-60 59%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -15.6 -19.4 +2.8
  Jan 19, 2023 322   @ North Dakota L 60-77 55%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -23.4 -15.9 -7.8
  Jan 21, 2023 241   @ North Dakota St. W 75-73 36%     7 - 12 4 - 4 +0.5 +3.6 -3.0
  Jan 26, 2023 310   Nebraska Omaha W 64-61 71%     8 - 12 5 - 4 -7.8 -7.8 +0.3
  Jan 28, 2023 318   Denver W 70-60 73%     9 - 12 6 - 4 -1.4 -5.1 +4.5
  Jan 30, 2023 200   South Dakota St. L 66-67 46%     9 - 13 6 - 5 -5.2 +1.7 -7.1
  Feb 04, 2023 69   Oral Roberts L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 09, 2023 256   @ Western Illinois L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 266   @ St. Thomas L 65-67 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 241   North Dakota St. W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 322   North Dakota W 68-61 75%    
  Feb 23, 2023 200   @ South Dakota St. L 61-67 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 286   @ South Dakota L 65-66 44%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 4.1 2.1 0.2 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 9.4 4.8 0.3 16.1 3rd
4th 0.7 11.4 9.3 0.7 0.0 22.0 4th
5th 0.3 8.2 13.9 1.6 0.0 24.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.8 11.5 2.6 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 0.7 6.0 3.5 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 1.0 1.4 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 2.0 10.5 24.0 29.6 21.7 9.6 2.4 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-7 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
10-8 21.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 21.5
9-9 29.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 29.4
8-10 24.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.9
7-11 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 4.5% 15.2 3.6 0.9
Lose Out 2.0% 0.3% 16.0 0.3