Montana
Big Sky
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#186
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#240
Pace62.4#329
Improvement+0.6#6

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#190
First Shot+3.1#91
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#341
Layup/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#165
Freethrows+2.7#40
Improvement+0.3#21

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#199
First Shot-0.1#179
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#245
Layups/Dunks-2.3#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#7
Freethrows-5.4#355
Improvement+0.3#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 22.1% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 61.1% 72.3% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 85.8% 76.9%
Conference Champion 24.3% 28.0% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.6% 3.0%
First Four4.8% 4.3% 5.4%
First Round16.7% 20.3% 12.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 413 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 137   @ Duquesne L 63-91 26%     0 - 1 -22.6 -9.0 -14.6
  Nov 11, 2022 22   @ Xavier L 64-86 6%     0 - 2 -5.1 +1.0 -7.9
  Nov 17, 2022 282   St. Thomas W 78-59 78%     1 - 2 +9.7 +0.5 +10.0
  Nov 18, 2022 351   Merrimack W 62-51 91%     2 - 2 -5.5 -9.3 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2022 145   Troy L 62-73 51%     2 - 3 -12.5 -8.4 -4.9
  Nov 27, 2022 206   @ Air Force L 56-59 41%     2 - 4 -2.0 -4.9 +2.4
  Nov 29, 2022 114   @ Southern Miss L 54-64 23%     2 - 5 -3.5 -1.2 -4.8
  Dec 06, 2022 168   South Dakota St. W 81-56 57%     3 - 5 +21.9 +11.4 +12.2
  Dec 10, 2022 273   @ North Dakota St. W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 17, 2022 263   Prairie View W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 20, 2022 9   @ Gonzaga L 62-83 3%    
  Dec 29, 2022 242   Eastern Washington W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 31, 2022 298   Idaho W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 05, 2023 292   @ Northern Arizona W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 217   @ Northern Colorado L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 12, 2023 287   Weber St. W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 305   Idaho St. W 68-58 81%    
  Jan 16, 2023 242   @ Eastern Washington L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 172   Montana St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 26, 2023 257   @ Sacramento St. W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 28, 2023 183   @ Portland St. L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 02, 2023 217   Northern Colorado W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 292   Northern Arizona W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 09, 2023 305   @ Idaho St. W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 287   @ Weber St. W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 172   @ Montana St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 23, 2023 183   Portland St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 257   Sacramento St. W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 27, 2023 298   @ Idaho W 70-66 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 6.8 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.0 5.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 6.6 4.2 1.0 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.3 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.8 10.1 12.8 13.9 14.1 11.9 9.2 5.6 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 99.3% 2.9    2.7 0.1 0.0
15-3 91.1% 5.1    4.4 0.7 0.0
14-4 74.7% 6.8    4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 45.2% 5.4    2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 17.4% 2.5    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 16.0 6.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.8% 71.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 56.4% 56.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5
16-2 2.9% 49.3% 49.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.6% 40.9% 40.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 3.3
14-4 9.2% 32.7% 32.7% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 6.2
13-5 11.9% 26.0% 26.0% 15.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 8.8
12-6 14.1% 20.7% 20.7% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.5 11.2
11-7 13.9% 15.1% 15.1% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 11.8
10-8 12.8% 12.2% 12.2% 15.9 0.1 1.5 11.2
9-9 10.1% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.2
8-10 7.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.5 7.3
7-11 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 4.8
6-12 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 6.7 8.0 81.1 0.0%