Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Purdue 100.0%   2   29 - 5 15 - 5 29 - 5 15 - 5 +16.8      +9.9 7 +6.9 29 62.1 327 +19.2 3 +16.3 1
24 Indiana 100.0%   6   22 - 11 12 - 8 23 - 11 12 - 8 +12.7      +7.1 23 +5.7 42 69.3 149 +13.7 22 +13.4 2
25 Maryland 88.9%   10   21 - 12 11 - 9 21 - 13 11 - 9 +12.7      +6.2 36 +6.5 32 63.3 307 +11.2 39 +11.2 7
30 Illinois 88.7%   11   20 - 12 11 - 9 20 - 13 11 - 9 +12.2      +5.7 41 +6.6 31 72.7 61 +11.2 40 +11.0 8
31 Michigan St. 99.1%   7   19 - 12 11 - 8 20 - 12 11 - 8 +11.9      +5.9 39 +6.0 36 63.5 300 +12.6 27 +13.3 3
34 Iowa 95.8%   9   19 - 13 11 - 9 19 - 14 11 - 9 +11.6      +11.0 3 +0.6 154 73.1 48 +10.7 44 +11.5 6
35 Rutgers 75.8%   11   19 - 14 10 - 10 19 - 14 10 - 10 +11.3      +0.9 150 +10.4 4 65.5 251 +9.3 60 +10.3 10
40 Penn St. 97.6%   9   22 - 13 10 - 10 22 - 14 10 - 10 +10.8      +8.3 18 +2.5 98 62.8 315 +11.7 35 +10.7 9
43 Northwestern 99.0%   8   21 - 11 12 - 8 21 - 12 12 - 8 +10.7      +2.4 107 +8.3 13 63.8 292 +11.9 33 +13.2 4
44 Michigan 9.8%   17 - 15 11 - 9 17 - 15 11 - 9 +10.5      +5.6 43 +4.9 53 68.4 168 +8.8 61 +11.6 5
46 Ohio St. 0.0%   16 - 19 5 - 15 16 - 19 5 - 15 +10.3      +8.1 19 +2.2 106 65.4 257 +7.9 70 +4.6 13
61 Wisconsin 30.0%   17 - 14 9 - 11 17 - 14 9 - 11 +8.9      +1.7 127 +7.2 25 59.8 350 +10.1 48 +9.3 12
89 Nebraska 0.0%   16 - 16 9 - 11 16 - 16 9 - 11 +6.0      +1.4 140 +4.6 58 67.3 195 +8.5 63 +9.7 11
183 Minnesota 0.0%   9 - 22 2 - 17 9 - 22 2 - 17 -0.8      -1.3 219 +0.5 158 64.5 278 +0.1 165 -1.1 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 1.0 100.0
Indiana 2.0 100.0
Maryland 4.0 100.0
Illinois 4.0 100.0
Michigan St. 4.0 100.0
Iowa 4.0 100.0
Rutgers 9.0 100.0
Penn St. 9.0 100.0
Northwestern 2.0 100.0
Michigan 4.0 100.0
Ohio St. 13.0 100.0
Wisconsin 11.0 100.0
Nebraska 11.0 100.0
Minnesota 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 15 - 5 100.0
Indiana 12 - 8 100.0
Maryland 11 - 9 100.0
Illinois 11 - 9 100.0
Michigan St. 11 - 9 100.0
Iowa 11 - 9 100.0
Rutgers 10 - 10 100.0
Penn St. 10 - 10 100.0
Northwestern 12 - 8 100.0
Michigan 11 - 9 100.0
Ohio St. 5 - 15 100.0
Wisconsin 9 - 11 100.0
Nebraska 9 - 11 100.0
Minnesota 2 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 100.0% 100.0
Indiana
Maryland
Illinois
Michigan St.
Iowa
Rutgers
Penn St.
Northwestern
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Minnesota


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   43.7 52.1 4.2 0.0
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.0 0.4 5.5 26.3 40.6 24.2 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maryland 88.9% 0.0% 88.9% 10   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 10.1 24.2 35.4 17.2 0.1 11.1 88.9%
Illinois 88.7% 0.0% 88.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 3.9 14.3 35.3 34.2 0.5 11.3 88.7%
Michigan St. 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 7   0.0 0.1 2.6 13.1 39.4 33.3 9.9 0.8 0.0 0.9 99.1%
Iowa 95.8% 0.0% 95.8% 9   0.0 0.3 3.7 24.8 42.1 22.7 2.2 4.2 95.8%
Rutgers 75.8% 0.0% 75.8% 11   0.0 0.9 5.7 29.3 39.2 0.6 24.2 75.8%
Penn St. 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 9   0.0 0.2 5.4 37.5 43.9 10.3 0.3 2.4 97.6%
Northwestern 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 8   0.0 0.6 7.1 35.0 43.6 12.0 0.7 0.0 1.0 99.0%
Michigan 9.8% 0.0% 9.8% 4.7 5.1 0.1 90.2 9.8%
Ohio St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wisconsin 30.0% 0.0% 30.0% 0.1 19.7 10.2 0.0 70.0 30.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.3% 65.1% 40.7% 22.3% 11.7% 6.0%
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 61.0% 27.6% 11.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Maryland 88.9% 5.0% 87.0% 46.1% 16.8% 7.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Illinois 88.7% 14.3% 82.8% 41.3% 15.3% 6.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Michigan St. 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 51.7% 17.2% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Iowa 95.8% 0.2% 95.8% 47.5% 13.7% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Rutgers 75.8% 17.2% 68.1% 31.3% 11.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Penn St. 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 45.2% 11.5% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Northwestern 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 45.6% 12.4% 4.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Michigan 9.8% 9.8% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin 30.0% 29.3% 14.1% 4.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.8 0.0 0.2 4.0 26.3 50.6 17.9 1.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.5 0.0 0.6 8.7 39.4 44.2 7.0 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.3 2.7 12.6 27.8 31.2 18.7 5.8 0.9 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.0% 1.9 6.0 30.4 36.4 20.0 6.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 68.2% 0.9 31.8 46.5 18.2 3.3 0.3 0.0
Final Four 37.3% 0.4 62.7 33.1 4.0 0.2 0.0
Final Game 17.8% 0.2 82.2 17.3 0.5
Champion 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.2