Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
33 Florida Atlantic 100.0%   6   29 - 3 18 - 2 29 - 4 18 - 2 +11.6      +6.2 34 +5.4 45 70.4 121 +15.0 14 +14.6 1
64 UAB 1.9%   24 - 9 14 - 6 24 - 9 14 - 6 +8.6      +5.2 51 +3.4 81 75.0 31 +7.6 71 +6.8 3
65 North Texas 9.2%   24 - 7 16 - 4 24 - 7 16 - 4 +8.5      +2.7 101 +5.8 39 52.7 363 +9.5 55 +10.3 2
118 Charlotte 0.0%   18 - 14 9 - 11 18 - 14 9 - 11 +3.0      +1.9 119 +1.1 137 56.0 362 +1.6 138 +0.4 5
122 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 9 17 - 14 10 - 9 +2.8      +0.8 153 +2.0 108 67.0 204 +3.3 125 +2.9 4
163 Louisiana Tech 0.0%   12 - 18 7 - 13 12 - 18 7 - 13 +0.1      +0.5 158 -0.4 189 66.5 217 -1.1 187 -2.1 10
170 Western Kentucky 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 12 15 - 16 8 - 12 -0.3      +0.1 171 -0.4 187 68.2 173 +0.6 157 -0.6 8
188 UTEP 0.0%   12 - 18 7 - 13 12 - 18 7 - 13 -0.9      -4.2 294 +3.3 82 67.2 201 -1.8 199 -2.0 9
216 Rice 0.0%   15 - 15 8 - 11 15 - 15 8 - 11 -2.2      +1.8 121 -4.0 296 72.8 57 +0.7 156 0.0 6
219 Florida International 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 12 12 - 18 8 - 12 -2.5      -1.5 227 -1.0 208 74.0 42 -2.7 219 -0.3 7
293 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   8 - 22 4 - 16 8 - 22 4 - 16 -6.9      -2.2 244 -4.7 314 71.4 98 -6.5 277 -5.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Florida Atlantic 1.0 100.0
UAB 3.0 100.0
North Texas 2.0 100.0
Charlotte 5.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 4.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 9.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 6.0 100.0
UTEP 9.0 100.0
Rice 6.0 100.0
Florida International 6.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Florida Atlantic 18 - 2 100.0
UAB 14 - 6 100.0
North Texas 16 - 4 100.0
Charlotte 9 - 11 100.0
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 100.0
Louisiana Tech 7 - 13 100.0
Western Kentucky 8 - 12 100.0
UTEP 7 - 13 100.0
Rice 8 - 12 100.0
Florida International 8 - 12 100.0
Texas San Antonio 4 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Atlantic 100.0% 100.0
UAB
North Texas
Charlotte
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky
UTEP
Rice
Florida International
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Atlantic 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.0 0.8 6.6 20.8 34.2 22.5 9.9 4.3 0.9 0.1
UAB 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.9 1.0 0.0 98.1 1.9%
North Texas 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0 0.1 5.4 3.8 0.0 90.8 9.2%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida Atlantic 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 56.0% 22.0% 8.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
UAB 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 9.2% 8.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.0 10.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
2nd Round 56.8% 0.6 43.2 55.9 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 22.5% 0.2 77.5 22.4 0.1
Elite Eight 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.2 0.0
Final Four 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Final Game 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3