Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Gonzaga 100.0%   2   27 - 5 14 - 2 28 - 5 14 - 2 +16.8      +13.0 1 +3.7 75 73.9 43 +17.9 7 +16.8 2
15 St. Mary's 99.2%   5   25 - 7 14 - 2 26 - 7 14 - 2 +14.2      +5.1 55 +9.1 9 58.4 358 +13.3 23 +17.5 1
77 BYU 0.0%   17 - 15 7 - 9 17 - 15 7 - 9 +7.6      +2.7 103 +5.0 52 72.7 58 +4.9 105 +3.4 6
85 Santa Clara 0.7%   22 - 9 11 - 5 22 - 9 11 - 5 +6.8      +4.1 75 +2.8 92 74.2 41 +9.5 54 +10.7 3
94 San Francisco 0.0%   19 - 14 7 - 9 19 - 14 7 - 9 +5.1      +3.6 85 +1.6 119 71.0 104 +5.6 97 +3.5 5
111 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   18 - 12 9 - 7 18 - 12 9 - 7 +4.0      +2.9 100 +1.1 138 67.7 183 +6.2 89 +6.7 4
155 Portland 0.0%   12 - 19 5 - 11 12 - 19 5 - 11 +0.9      +4.1 73 -3.2 275 71.9 79 -0.2 173 -0.5 8
178 Pacific 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 9 14 - 17 7 - 9 -0.7      +2.0 117 -2.7 259 72.6 62 +0.2 164 +2.7 7
185 Pepperdine 0.0%   7 - 22 2 - 14 7 - 22 2 - 14 -0.9      +0.2 169 -1.0 209 78.3 14 -4.2 245 -7.5 10
221 San Diego 0.0%   8 - 20 4 - 12 9 - 20 4 - 12 -2.9      +3.4 87 -6.4 343 70.6 119 -3.8 237 -2.3 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
BYU 5.0 100.0
Santa Clara 3.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 4.0 100.0
Portland 8.0 100.0
Pacific 5.0 100.0
Pepperdine 10.0 100.0
San Diego 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 100.0
St. Mary's 14 - 2 100.0
BYU 7 - 9 100.0
Santa Clara 11 - 5 100.0
San Francisco 7 - 9 100.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 7 100.0
Portland 5 - 11 100.0
Pacific 7 - 9 100.0
Pepperdine 2 - 14 100.0
San Diego 4 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
BYU
Santa Clara
San Francisco
Loyola Marymount
Portland
Pacific
Pepperdine
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   15.8 48.3 31.7 4.1 0.1
St. Mary's 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 5   0.1 0.6 7.8 31.1 32.4 19.9 6.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 99.2%
BYU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3 0.4 0.0 99.3 0.7%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.8% 62.6% 37.7% 20.0% 10.5% 5.2%
St. Mary's 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 72.1% 40.1% 16.9% 7.7% 3.3% 1.3%
BYU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 0.8 98.6 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.8 99.0 0.2
2nd Round 97.7% 1.6 2.3 31.5 66.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 78.0% 1.0 22.0 53.2 24.7 0.0
Elite Eight 48.8% 0.5 51.2 43.0 5.8 0.0
Final Four 26.5% 0.3 73.5 25.4 1.2 0.0
Final Game 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.5 0.1
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5