Wagner
Northeast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#213
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#109
Pace66.4#238
Improvement-0.3#255

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#212
First Shot-1.9#238
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#152
Layup/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#46
Freethrows-3.1#342
Improvement-0.1#221

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#211
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#248
Layups/Dunks-1.8#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement-0.2#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.9% 76.9% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 96.9% 98.9% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.2% 96.0%
Conference Champion 67.4% 72.3% 60.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four20.9% 16.7% 26.9%
First Round60.5% 67.9% 49.9%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 58.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 30 - 11 - 2
Quad 417 - 518 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 96   @ Temple W 76-73 OT 16%     1 - 0 +11.2 +6.0 +5.1
  Nov 12, 2022 220   @ La Salle L 69-77 41%     1 - 1 -8.2 -3.2 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2022 236   Fairfield W 68-52 66%     2 - 1 +9.2 +2.9 +8.8
  Nov 20, 2022 52   @ Seton Hall L 44-82 9%     2 - 2 -25.6 -18.4 -9.0
  Nov 27, 2022 317   @ NJIT W 62-57 64%     3 - 2 -1.4 -3.0 +2.4
  Dec 03, 2022 305   @ Army W 73-71 59%    
  Dec 06, 2022 177   @ Fordham L 64-69 31%    
  Dec 15, 2022 343   Stony Brook W 74-61 89%    
  Dec 20, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 29, 2022 350   @ LIU Brooklyn W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 31, 2022 341   Merrimack W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 05, 2023 345   @ Stonehill W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 07, 2023 324   St. Francis (PA) W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 16, 2023 341   @ Merrimack W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 20, 2023 342   Central Connecticut St. W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 22, 2023 302   Sacred Heart W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 26, 2023 338   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 02, 2023 302   @ Sacred Heart W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 321   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 09, 2023 338   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 350   LIU Brooklyn W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 16, 2023 342   @ Central Connecticut St. W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 321   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 23, 2023 345   Stonehill W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 25, 2023 324   @ St. Francis (PA) W 72-67 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.7 11.7 16.0 16.8 12.3 4.9 67.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.2 4.4 1.8 0.2 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.2 8.4 12.2 16.3 17.8 17.0 12.3 4.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.9    4.9
15-1 100.0% 12.3    12.3 0.1
14-2 98.6% 16.8    16.0 0.8
13-3 90.0% 16.0    13.4 2.6 0.1
12-4 71.8% 11.7    7.1 4.0 0.5 0.0
11-5 38.9% 4.7    1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
10-6 10.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.4% 67.4 55.2 10.1 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.9% 95.5% 95.5% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.2
15-1 12.3% 91.8% 91.8% 14.5 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.0 1.0 1.0
14-2 17.0% 86.9% 86.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.5 4.4 2.2
13-3 17.8% 80.1% 80.1% 15.5 0.0 0.9 5.6 7.8 3.5
12-4 16.3% 72.1% 72.1% 15.7 0.2 2.5 9.0 4.5
11-5 12.2% 60.9% 60.9% 15.9 0.0 0.6 6.8 4.8
10-6 8.4% 51.4% 51.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 4.1
9-7 5.2% 38.6% 38.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0 3.2
8-8 3.1% 28.4% 28.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 2.2
7-9 1.5% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.3 1.2
6-10 0.7% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.1 0.7
5-11 0.3% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 71.9% 71.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.5 2.5 10.0 22.2 36.6 28.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 97.2% 12.9 2.5 27.9 47.6 17.9 1.4