Preseason Rankings
Big West
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 UC Irvine 30.1%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 14 - 6 +4.8      +1.1 139 +3.7 72 72.3 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Long Beach St. 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 +1.7      +2.6 99 -0.9 202 80.6 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Hawaii 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 8 +1.7      -1.4 228 +3.1 87 62.9 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 UC Santa Barbara 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +1.2      +1.4 135 -0.2 182 63.1 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 Cal St. Fullerton 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 8 +0.6      -0.6 201 +1.2 137 63.2 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 UC Davis 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 -0.1      -0.6 200 +0.5 157 75.0 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 UC Riverside 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -1.8      -1.6 236 -0.1 178 67.0 205 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 UC San Diego 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.2      -0.5 196 -3.7 286 65.7 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -5.0      -4.8 313 -0.1 176 59.9 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 Cal St. Northridge 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -8.7      -5.1 318 -3.6 283 63.6 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Cal Poly 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 24 5 - 15 -10.7      -9.2 357 -1.4 220 61.7 332 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.8 36.7 20.3 14.1 9.6 6.9 4.9 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
Long Beach St. 4.1 17.3 15.9 14.8 12.7 11.4 9.1 7.5 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.6
Hawaii 4.1 18.1 16.2 14.3 12.4 11.2 8.8 7.4 5.3 3.6 2.0 0.7
UC Santa Barbara 4.3 15.2 15.0 13.9 12.8 11.3 10.1 8.1 6.2 4.1 2.3 0.9
Cal St. Fullerton 4.6 12.5 13.2 13.2 13.0 11.8 11.0 9.3 6.9 5.1 2.9 1.1
UC Davis 4.9 10.5 11.5 12.7 12.7 12.2 11.4 10.3 8.0 5.8 3.5 1.4
UC Riverside 5.7 6.3 7.9 9.6 10.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 11.2 8.8 6.0 3.0
UC San Diego 6.9 2.6 4.3 5.7 7.6 9.3 11.3 13.0 14.2 14.2 11.2 6.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.2 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.4 8.3 10.7 12.9 14.4 15.5 13.4 8.3
Cal St. Northridge 8.8 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.5 8.4 12.1 17.5 24.1 23.2
Cal Poly 9.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.6 5.5 9.2 14.6 24.7 37.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.3 4.5 6.3 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.6 12.2 10.9 8.4 4.9 1.8
Long Beach St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.6 5.4 6.8 8.4 9.8 11.3 11.0 10.5 9.3 7.9 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.4
Hawaii 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.6 9.6 10.8 10.9 10.3 9.5 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.7 0.5
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.5 5.9 7.7 8.8 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.0 7.0 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.5
Cal St. Fullerton 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.4 9.8 10.5 11.0 10.3 9.2 8.0 5.8 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.2
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.9 7.4 9.0 10.2 10.9 10.6 9.9 8.7 6.8 5.0 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.2
UC Riverside 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.4 8.0 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.4 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
UC San Diego 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.2 7.8 9.9 10.5 11.0 10.7 9.5 8.1 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.8 7.2 9.1 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.6 8.9 7.0 5.4 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 14 1.8 4.9 8.7 11.2 12.7 12.9 11.7 10.0 8.2 6.2 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 15 4.2 9.0 12.8 14.9 14.2 12.0 10.0 7.8 5.6 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 36.7% 27.1 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 17.3% 11.7 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 18.1% 12.0 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 15.2% 9.9 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 12.5% 7.9 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 10.5% 6.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 6.3% 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 2.6% 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.0% 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 30.1% 28.4% 1.7% 13   0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 5.3 8.6 6.2 3.3 1.5 1.0 69.9 2.3%
Long Beach St. 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 85.7 0.5%
Hawaii 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.8 2.7 1.6 1.0 85.2 0.6%
UC Santa Barbara 12.4% 12.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 87.6 0.4%
Cal St. Fullerton 10.8% 10.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.2 89.2 0.3%
UC Davis 9.4% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.0 90.6 0.3%
UC Riverside 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 94.3 0.1%
UC San Diego 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 97.2 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 97.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 30.1% 1.5% 29.4% 7.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 14.3% 1.1% 13.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 14.8% 0.8% 14.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 12.4% 0.7% 12.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 10.8% 1.0% 10.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 9.4% 0.8% 9.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 5.7% 0.8% 5.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 94.9 2.4 0.0
2nd Round 18.8% 0.2 81.2 18.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0