Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24



View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Kansas Auto 94.9% 22.1% 72.7% 93.4%
1  Purdue Auto 94.2% 22.5% 71.7% 92.5%
1  Duke Auto 91.1% 26.1% 65.0% 87.9%
1  Michigan St. At-Large 88.1% 16.3% 71.9% 85.8%
2  Houston At-Large 86.5% 14.7% 71.7% 84.1%
2  Tennessee Auto 86.7% 15.6% 71.1% 84.2%
2  Connecticut Auto 86.6% 21.1% 65.5% 83.0%
2  Creighton At-Large 86.3% 18.8% 67.6% 83.2%
3  Alabama At-Large 81.5% 13.0% 68.5% 78.7%
3  Arizona Auto 83.4% 20.4% 63.0% 79.1%
3  Marquette At-Large 84.0% 18.0% 66.0% 80.5%
3  Kentucky At-Large 80.7% 12.2% 68.5% 78.1%
4  Baylor At-Large 74.6% 10.0% 64.6% 71.8%
4  Arkansas At-Large 73.7% 10.1% 63.6% 70.7%
4  Texas At-Large 72.6% 9.8% 62.8% 69.6%
4  North Carolina At-Large 75.2% 14.5% 60.7% 71.0%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 68.5% 9.1% 59.4% 65.3%
5  USC At-Large 74.2% 15.2% 59.0% 69.6%
5  Villanova At-Large 68.5% 12.0% 56.5% 64.2%
5  Illinois At-Large 67.6% 8.6% 59.0% 64.6%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 63.9% 8.0% 55.9% 60.8%
6  UCLA At-Large 69.7% 14.4% 55.2% 64.6%
6  Auburn At-Large 67.6% 8.7% 58.9% 64.5%
6  Kansas St. At-Large 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 56.6%
7  Maryland At-Large 62.0% 7.4% 54.6% 58.9%
7  TCU At-Large 59.9% 7.0% 52.8% 56.8%
7  Gonzaga Auto 77.8% 48.8% 29.0% 56.6%
7  Indiana At-Large 53.1% 5.7% 47.4% 50.2%
8  Mississippi St. At-Large 53.8% 6.2% 47.6% 50.8%
8  Florida At-Large 55.3% 6.3% 49.0% 52.3%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 54.5% 5.7% 48.8% 51.7%
8  Colorado At-Large 59.5% 10.5% 49.0% 54.7%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Texas Tech At-Large 48.5% 5.0% 43.5% 45.8%
9  Iowa At-Large 48.2% 5.5% 42.7% 45.2%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 59.0% 10.2% 48.7% 54.3%
9  Xavier At-Large 49.6% 7.0% 42.6% 45.8%
10  Oregon At-Large 57.0% 10.1% 46.9% 52.1%
10  Virginia At-Large 53.1% 8.7% 44.5% 48.7%
10  San Diego St. Auto 64.2% 25.6% 38.6% 51.9%
10  Memphis At-Large 62.6% 26.8% 35.8% 48.9%
11  Iowa St. At-Large 47.0% 5.0% 42.0% 44.2%
11  Clemson At-Large 48.1% 7.4% 40.6% 43.9%
11  St. John's At-Large 47.5% 7.0% 40.5% 43.5%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 60.9% 30.9% 30.0% 43.4%
11  Florida Atlantic Auto 63.8% 27.7% 36.1% 49.9%
11  Dayton Auto 25.9% 16.0% 9.9% 11.8%
12  Drake Auto 34.5% 28.8% 5.6% 7.9%
12  Yale Auto 53.6% 50.9% 2.7% 5.6%
12  Liberty Auto 32.9% 29.6% 3.3% 4.7%
12  College of Charleston Auto 36.8% 34.3% 2.4% 3.7%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 28.5% 26.2% 2.2% 3.0%
13  UC Irvine Auto 30.1% 28.4% 1.7% 2.3%
13  Kent St. Auto 26.2% 25.0% 1.1% 1.5%
13  Furman Auto 32.3% 31.6% 0.7% 1.0%
14  James Madison Auto 16.7% 15.9% 0.7% 0.9%
14  Vermont Auto 50.3% 50.0% 0.3% 0.7%
14  Eastern Kentucky Auto 23.1% 22.8% 0.2% 0.3%
14  Wright St. Auto 32.7% 32.5% 0.2% 0.4%
15  Colgate Auto 63.4% 63.3% 0.1% 0.3%
15  Iona Auto 34.9% 34.8% 0.1% 0.2%
15  South Dakota St. Auto 33.9% 33.7% 0.1% 0.2%
15  Weber St. Auto 22.9% 22.8% 0.1% 0.2%
16  UNC Asheville Auto 22.9% 22.9% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Morehead St. Auto 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 30.0% 30.0%
16  SE Louisiana Auto 18.5% 18.5%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 34.2% 34.2% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Sacred Heart Auto 25.1% 25.1%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Houston 86.5% 14.7% 71.7% 84.1%
Creighton 86.3% 18.8% 67.6% 83.2%
Marquette 84.0% 18.0% 66.0% 80.5%
Alabama 81.5% 13.0% 68.5% 78.7%
Kentucky 80.7% 12.2% 68.5% 78.1%
Baylor 74.6% 10.0% 64.6% 71.8%
North Carolina 75.2% 14.5% 60.7% 71.0%
Arkansas 73.7% 10.1% 63.6% 70.7%
Texas 72.6% 9.8% 62.8% 69.6%
USC 74.2% 15.2% 59.0% 69.6%
Texas A&M 68.5% 9.1% 59.4% 65.3%
Illinois 67.6% 8.6% 59.0% 64.6%
UCLA 69.7% 14.4% 55.2% 64.6%
Auburn 67.6% 8.7% 58.9% 64.5%
Villanova 68.5% 12.0% 56.5% 64.2%
Wisconsin 63.9% 8.0% 55.9% 60.8%
Maryland 62.0% 7.4% 54.6% 58.9%
TCU 59.9% 7.0% 52.8% 56.8%
Kansas St. 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 56.6%
Colorado 59.5% 10.5% 49.0% 54.7%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 10.2% 48.7% 54.3%
Florida 55.3% 6.3% 49.0% 52.3%
Oregon 57.0% 10.1% 46.9% 52.1%
Ohio St. 54.5% 5.7% 48.8% 51.7%
Mississippi St. 53.8% 6.2% 47.6% 50.8%
Indiana 53.1% 5.7% 47.4% 50.2%
Memphis 62.6% 26.8% 35.8% 48.9%
Virginia 53.1% 8.7% 44.5% 48.7%
Xavier 49.6% 7.0% 42.6% 45.8%
Texas Tech 48.5% 5.0% 43.5% 45.8%
Iowa 48.2% 5.5% 42.7% 45.2%
Iowa St. 47.0% 5.0% 42.0% 44.2%
Clemson 48.1% 7.4% 40.6% 43.9%
St. John's 47.5% 7.0% 40.5% 43.5%
St. Mary's 60.9% 30.9% 30.0% 43.4%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Michigan 43.8% 4.5% 39.3% 41.1%
Providence 44.9% 6.4% 38.5% 41.1%
Northwestern 43.1% 4.7% 38.4% 40.3%
Missouri 41.4% 4.1% 37.3% 38.9%
BYU 40.9% 4.0% 37.0% 38.5%
Rutgers 40.3% 4.4% 35.9% 37.6%
Stanford 41.7% 7.0% 34.7% 37.3%
Mississippi 37.8% 3.9% 33.9% 35.3%
LSU 35.8% 4.2% 31.6% 33.0%
Oklahoma 35.2% 3.9% 31.3% 32.5%
Utah 36.5% 5.9% 30.6% 32.5%
Cincinnati 34.7% 3.6% 31.1% 32.3%
Virginia Tech 36.0% 5.7% 30.3% 32.1%
North Carolina St. 34.8% 5.2% 29.6% 31.2%
Oklahoma St. 33.7% 3.7% 30.0% 31.1%
Arizona St. 34.6% 5.3% 29.3% 31.0%
West Virginia 32.8% 3.0% 29.8% 30.7%
New Mexico 39.4% 15.0% 24.3% 28.6%
Boise St. 39.3% 15.0% 24.2% 28.5%
Wake Forest 30.8% 4.9% 26.0% 27.3%
Nebraska 29.5% 3.1% 26.4% 27.2%
Seton Hall 30.1% 4.0% 26.1% 27.2%
Washington 27.8% 4.4% 23.4% 24.5%
Pittsburgh 27.0% 4.3% 22.7% 23.7%
Georgia 25.1% 2.7% 22.4% 23.0%
Syracuse 24.2% 3.5% 20.7% 21.4%
Colorado St. 27.4% 10.5% 16.9% 18.9%
Penn St. 20.5% 2.4% 18.1% 18.6%
Florida St. 19.5% 3.0% 16.5% 17.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Central Florida 18.7% 2.1% 16.6% 16.9%
Washington St. 19.0% 3.3% 15.7% 16.3%
Vanderbilt 16.7% 2.1% 14.6% 14.9%
Butler 16.6% 2.6% 14.0% 14.4%
Nevada 21.4% 8.7% 12.8% 14.0%
South Carolina 14.5% 1.9% 12.6% 12.9%
Utah St. 19.4% 7.9% 11.5% 12.5%
UAB 20.3% 9.1% 11.2% 12.3%
Georgia Tech 12.4% 2.2% 10.3% 10.5%
UNLV 16.2% 6.5% 9.7% 10.4%
California 10.7% 1.9% 8.7% 8.9%
St. Bonaventure 21.6% 14.4% 7.3% 8.5%
North Texas 14.5% 6.9% 7.6% 8.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.2% 13.2% 7.0% 8.1%
Boston College 9.6% 1.9% 7.8% 7.9%
DePaul 9.1% 1.4% 7.7% 7.8%
Georgetown 9.2% 1.6% 7.6% 7.7%
Wichita St. 12.6% 5.9% 6.6% 7.0%
Minnesota 7.6% 1.2% 6.4% 6.4%
San Francisco 12.7% 7.3% 5.4% 5.8%
Oregon St. 7.3% 1.6% 5.7% 5.8%
Duquesne 15.1% 10.1% 5.0% 5.6%
Tulane 10.5% 5.6% 4.9% 5.2%
SMU 10.0% 5.3% 4.7% 5.0%
Fresno St. 9.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7%
Loyola Chicago 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 4.2%
Louisville 5.2% 1.2% 4.1% 4.1%
Saint Louis 11.8% 8.3% 3.6% 3.9%
Notre Dame 5.1% 1.3% 3.8% 3.9%
Bradley 18.1% 15.6% 2.6% 3.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Loyola Marymount 7.0% 4.6% 2.3% 2.4%
Richmond 6.9% 5.2% 1.7% 1.7%
San Jose St. 4.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.7%
Temple 4.5% 2.9% 1.6% 1.6%
Sam Houston St. 15.4% 14.1% 1.3% 1.5%
Louisiana Tech 15.2% 13.9% 1.3% 1.5%
Hofstra 19.2% 18.0% 1.2% 1.5%
Santa Clara 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4%
Stephen F. Austin 18.3% 17.2% 1.1% 1.3%
Saint Joseph's 5.9% 4.7% 1.2% 1.3%
Akron 23.4% 22.4% 1.0% 1.3%
Wyoming 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2%
Northern Iowa 11.1% 10.0% 1.1% 1.2%
George Mason 5.7% 4.6% 1.1% 1.1%
Belmont 10.8% 9.8% 1.0% 1.1%
East Carolina 3.7% 2.6% 1.1% 1.1%
South Florida 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 1.1%
Davidson 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Indiana St. 11.2% 10.4% 0.9% 1.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.7% 10.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Seattle 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 0.9%
Ohio 18.4% 17.7% 0.7% 0.9%
Air Force 2.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Charlotte 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Princeton 16.6% 15.9% 0.7% 0.8%
Missouri St. 9.2% 8.5% 0.7% 0.8%
Marshall 14.6% 13.9% 0.7% 0.8%
Toledo 17.1% 16.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Drexel 14.3% 13.6% 0.6% 0.7%
UNC Greensboro 25.0% 24.5% 0.5% 0.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UNC Wilmington 12.8% 12.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Portland 2.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6%
Murray St. 7.3% 6.8% 0.5% 0.6%
Hawaii 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 0.6%
New Mexico St. 8.2% 7.8% 0.5% 0.5%
Fordham 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Southern Miss 11.2% 10.8% 0.4% 0.5%
UTEP 9.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.5%
Appalachian St. 10.7% 10.2% 0.4% 0.5%
Long Beach St. 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 0.5%
Utah Valley 9.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.5%
UC Santa Barbara 12.4% 12.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Rice 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Towson 8.9% 8.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Abilene Christian 8.6% 8.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Cornell 11.6% 11.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Louisiana 8.5% 8.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Rhode Island 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Southern Illinois 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 0.3%
UC Davis 9.4% 9.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Pepperdine 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Florida Gulf Coast 17.0% 16.8% 0.2% 0.3%
Western Kentucky 7.3% 7.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Pacific 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Cal St. Fullerton 10.8% 10.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Massachusetts 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2%
La Salle 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2%
California Baptist 6.7% 6.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Florida International 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Samford 14.0% 13.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
South Alabama 7.9% 7.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Eastern Washington 19.9% 19.8% 0.1% 0.2%
Old Dominion 7.4% 7.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Arkansas St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.2%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 0.2%
Delaware 5.6% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Lipscomb 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Brown 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Riverside 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Umass Lowell 20.6% 20.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Troy 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Kentucky 16.3% 16.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Oral Roberts 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Buffalo 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia St. 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Chattanooga 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Tarleton St. 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Montana 16.8% 16.7% 0.1% 0.1%
San Diego 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Gardner-Webb 16.3% 16.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Carolina 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois St. 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1%
Harvard 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1%
Winthrop 18.2% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Stetson 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 6.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 12.3% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
High Point 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
American 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Maine 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Navy 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%