Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
148 Iona 34.9%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 6 +1.3      +0.7 149 +0.6 154 71.2 99 0.0 1 0.0 1
230 Rider 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -3.5      -1.1 221 -2.4 247 63.7 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 Quinnipiac 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -3.6      -1.6 237 -1.9 234 73.3 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 Mount St. Mary's 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 10 - 10 -4.8      -4.8 310 0.0 169 65.1 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Fairfield 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -5.2      -4.3 304 -1.0 206 63.5 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Niagara 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -5.2      -4.1 303 -1.1 211 60.0 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Siena 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -5.7      -4.1 301 -1.6 222 67.5 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Canisius 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -5.9      -3.0 269 -2.9 262 68.8 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Marist 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 11 -6.0      -4.8 311 -1.2 214 64.4 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 St. Peter's 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -6.4      -6.8 349 +0.4 161 59.8 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 Manhattan 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -9.5      -5.8 332 -3.8 290 67.4 193 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 2.7 43.4 19.2 11.7 7.9 5.7 4.0 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4
Rider 4.9 13.0 13.5 12.3 11.2 10.4 9.3 8.3 7.4 6.3 4.8 3.5
Quinnipiac 4.9 12.8 13.9 12.2 11.5 10.1 9.1 8.3 7.3 6.3 5.0 3.5
Mount St. Mary's 5.6 9.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.2 9.9 9.4 8.7 8.2 7.0 5.5
Fairfield 5.8 7.8 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.5 9.2 8.8 7.8 6.4
Niagara 5.8 8.1 9.6 10.4 10.6 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.0 8.6 7.9 6.4
Siena 6.1 6.6 8.5 8.9 9.7 9.7 10.4 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.3 7.6
Canisius 6.1 6.6 8.1 9.2 9.3 10.1 9.7 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.0 7.7
Marist 6.2 6.0 7.8 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.6 8.2
St. Peter's 6.4 5.4 7.4 8.1 9.1 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.5 9.2
Manhattan 8.0 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.0 6.4 7.6 8.7 10.7 13.4 17.0 22.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.5 4.8 6.4 8.3 9.9 11.0 12.0 12.0 10.8 8.4 5.4 2.0
Rider 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.0 9.9 10.4 10.0 9.6 8.2 6.5 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.2
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.0 7.7 9.0 9.6 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.3 6.8 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.5 6.3 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.2 10.2 9.4 7.9 6.7 5.1 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.7 7.8 9.4 10.1 10.5 9.9 8.9 7.5 6.2 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
Niagara 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.1 9.9 8.9 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Siena 9 - 11 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.7 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.1 9.3 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
Canisius 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.3 8.3 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Marist 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.1 10.3 9.2 8.0 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.4 9.5 10.1 10.2 9.6 9.1 7.3 6.1 4.7 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
Manhattan 7 - 13 1.0 2.9 5.4 7.5 9.7 10.7 11.3 10.7 9.8 8.3 7.0 5.4 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 43.4% 33.8 7.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rider 13.0% 8.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 12.8% 8.3 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9.1% 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 7.8% 5.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 8.1% 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Siena 6.6% 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Canisius 6.6% 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 6.0% 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 5.4% 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 34.9% 34.8% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 4.6 7.7 9.2 7.1 4.2 65.1 0.2%
Rider 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.3 89.3 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.1 89.4 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.6 92.6 0.0%
Fairfield 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.7 93.2 0.0%
Niagara 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.4 93.3 0.0%
Siena 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 94.2 0.0%
Canisius 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 94.4 0.0%
Marist 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.2 94.7 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.0 95.3 0.0%
Manhattan 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 98.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 34.9% 1.9% 34.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 10.7% 2.1% 9.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.6% 1.7% 9.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.4% 1.4% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 6.8% 1.6% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 6.7% 1.4% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 5.8% 1.4% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 5.6% 1.4% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 5.3% 1.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.7% 1.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 91.9% 0.9 8.1 91.8 0.1
2nd Round 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0