IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.5	#216
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.5	#13
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#183

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#245

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.9%	5.5%	2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	14.0	14.8

.500 or above	41.1%	46.4%	19.5%
.500 or above in Conference	53.4%	57.0%	38.8%
Conference Champion	5.2%	5.8%	2.4%
Last Place in Conference	6.2%	5.1%	10.6%

First Four	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	4.6%	5.2%	2.1%
Second Round	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 4	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	314	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	86-77	80%
Nov 11, 2023	177	South Alabama	W	75-74	53%
Nov 20, 2023	112	Hofstra	L	75-81	29%
Nov 29, 2023	121	@ James Madison	L	78-86	23%
Dec 02, 2023	78	St. Bonaventure	L	71-77	28%
Dec 05, 2023	88	@ Butler	L	68-79	16%
Dec 09, 2023	172	Western Kentucky	W	77-76	52%
Dec 21, 2023	129	@ Richmond	L	70-78	24%
Dec 29, 2023	258	Niagara	W	73-67	68%
Jan 02, 2024	323	@ Central Michigan	W	78-74	62%
Jan 06, 2024	319	Western Michigan	W	80-71	78%
Jan 09, 2024	260	Miami (OH)	W	81-75	68%
Jan 13, 2024	114	@ Akron	L	70-79	22%
Jan 16, 2024	132	@ Toledo	L	80-88	26%
Jan 23, 2024	234	Ball St.	W	80-76	64%
Jan 27, 2024	315	@ Eastern Michigan	W	82-79	59%
Jan 30, 2024	127	@ Ohio	L	76-84	26%
Feb 03, 2024	107	Kent St.	L	75-79	38%
Feb 06, 2024	235	@ Bowling Green	L	81-83	44%
Feb 13, 2024	240	@ Northern Illinois	L	79-80	45%
Feb 17, 2024	114	Akron	L	73-76	40%
Feb 20, 2024	315	Eastern Michigan	W	85-76	77%
Feb 24, 2024	319	@ Western Michigan	W	77-74	60%
Feb 27, 2024	107	@ Kent St.	L	72-82	21%
Mar 02, 2024	132	Toledo	L	83-85	44%
Mar 05, 2024	127	Ohio	L	79-81	43%
Mar 08, 2024	240	Northern Illinois	W	82-77	65%
Projected Record						13 - 14	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.1		5.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.7	2.8	1.9	0.7	0.1				7.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.4	3.8	2.0	0.4	0.0					8.9	3rd
4th										0.5	3.0	4.6	2.0	0.3	0.0						10.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.9	4.5	2.3	0.2	0.0							10.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.8	4.9	2.5	0.3	0.0								10.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.3	5.1	2.9	0.4	0.0									11.0	7th
8th						0.2	1.9	4.7	2.9	0.5	0.0										10.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.7	4.3	2.8	0.5	0.0											9.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.3	3.2	2.2	0.5	0.0												7.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	1.3	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.0													5.4	11th
12th	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0														3.5	12th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.6	4.3	6.5	9.0	10.6	11.7	11.7	10.9	9.9	7.7	5.8	3.7	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	92.2%	0.9		0.8	0.1	0.0
15-3	67.1%	1.5		0.9	0.5	0.0
14-4	39.6%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
13-5	12.0%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0								0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.2%	5.2		2.9	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		64.8%	51.7%	13.1%	9.1					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		27.1%
17-1	0.4%		57.0%	48.7%	8.3%	11.7								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		16.2%
16-2	1.0%		36.7%	35.0%	1.7%	12.4											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6		2.6%
15-3	2.2%		24.6%	24.2%	0.4%	12.9												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.6		0.5%
14-4	3.7%		16.1%	16.1%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	3.1
13-5	5.8%		11.8%	11.8%		13.9													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	5.1
12-6	7.7%		9.2%	9.2%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	7.0
11-7	9.9%		5.7%	5.7%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	9.3
10-8	10.9%		4.3%	4.3%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	10.5
9-9	11.7%		2.4%	2.4%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	11.4
8-10	11.7%		1.7%	1.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	11.5
7-11	10.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
6-12	9.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
5-13	6.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
4-14	4.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
3-15	2.6%																							2.6
2-16	1.3%																							1.3
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.9%	4.8%	0.1%	14.0					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.0	1.0	95.1		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%