Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#237
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#316
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 38.5% 49.1% 23.4%
.500 or above in Conference 50.6% 57.6% 40.5%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.9% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 4.9% 9.9%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round4.0% 5.2% 2.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 324   @ Chicago St. W 67-64 59%    
  Nov 14, 2023 220   @ Morehead St. L 60-64 35%    
  Nov 17, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 62-84 2%    
  Nov 24, 2023 262   Tennessee St. W 73-71 55%    
  Dec 01, 2023 73   @ Georgia L 60-74 10%    
  Dec 06, 2023 177   South Alabama L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 09, 2023 206   Georgia St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 16, 2023 159   Florida Gulf Coast L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 19, 2023 224   Queens W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 03, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 06, 2024 351   @ VMI W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 10, 2024 242   Wofford W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 17, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 165   @ Samford L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 24, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-69 21%    
  Jan 31, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 03, 2024 351   VMI W 73-61 83%    
  Feb 07, 2024 104   Furman L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 10, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 14, 2024 242   Wofford W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 17, 2024 165   Samford L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 21, 2024 320   The Citadel W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 28, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga L 66-72 32%    
  Mar 02, 2024 104   @ Furman L 64-75 18%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 4.1 1.0 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.5 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.3 10.6 12.0 11.8 10.7 9.1 6.9 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 72.8% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 41.5% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.9% 45.9% 12.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.2%
17-1 0.3% 44.3% 42.9% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.4%
16-2 0.8% 34.4% 33.9% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7%
15-3 2.0% 21.5% 21.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
14-4 3.4% 16.7% 16.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9
13-5 5.3% 12.0% 12.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.7
12-6 6.9% 8.6% 8.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.3
11-7 9.1% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.6
10-8 10.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3
9-9 11.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.4
8-10 12.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.8
7-11 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 9.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-13 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%