Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.9% 39.9% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 77.2% 86.7% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 93.1% 85.5%
Conference Champion 40.4% 47.0% 33.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four2.6% 1.9% 3.4%
First Round32.6% 39.0% 25.5%
Second Round4.1% 5.5% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 411 - 316 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 114   Akron W 69-68 53%    
  Nov 13, 2023 32   @ Kansas St. L 67-81 10%    
  Nov 19, 2023 81   Central Florida L 64-69 32%    
  Nov 22, 2023 152   @ Southern Miss L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 01, 2023 158   Towson W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 05, 2023 107   Kent St. W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 09, 2023 95   Wichita St. L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 20, 2023 163   Wyoming W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 31, 2023 267   North Dakota W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 03, 2024 160   @ Weber St. L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 225   Montana St. W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 11, 2024 276   @ St. Thomas W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 307   @ Denver W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 18, 2024 296   Nebraska Omaha W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 20, 2024 304   @ South Dakota W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 25, 2024 286   UMKC W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 27, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 01, 2024 201   North Dakota St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 04, 2024 304   South Dakota W 77-65 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 175   Oral Roberts W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 15, 2024 286   @ UMKC W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 22, 2024 307   Denver W 80-68 84%    
  Feb 24, 2024 276   St. Thomas W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 29, 2024 267   @ North Dakota W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 201   @ North Dakota St. L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.5 10.4 10.8 7.1 2.8 40.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.2 6.9 3.2 0.7 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 3.5 0.9 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 8.9 11.4 13.2 14.3 13.7 11.6 7.1 2.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
15-1 100.0% 7.1    6.9 0.2
14-2 93.6% 10.8    9.2 1.7 0.0
13-3 76.3% 10.4    7.1 3.1 0.2
12-4 45.8% 6.5    3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 16.9% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.4% 40.4 29.8 8.9 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.8% 84.4% 81.6% 2.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 15.1%
15-1 7.1% 72.1% 71.5% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 2.2%
14-2 11.6% 58.1% 58.0% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.9 0.3%
13-3 13.7% 45.9% 45.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 7.4 0.1%
12-4 14.3% 36.5% 36.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.5 9.1
11-5 13.2% 28.0% 28.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 9.5
10-6 11.4% 20.2% 20.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 9.1
9-7 8.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.8
8-8 6.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.9
7-9 4.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.3
6-10 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.7
5-11 1.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-12 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.9% 33.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 5.0 7.8 8.4 6.4 4.2 66.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.9 8.9 9.9 16.8 27.7 18.8 16.8 1.0