IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.8	#358
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.2	#129
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.5	#343

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.4	#357

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.6%	10.4%	2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	10.7%	52.1%	10.6%
.500 or above in Conference	38.8%	74.9%	38.8%
Conference Champion	4.7%	15.4%	4.7%
Last Place in Conference	16.0%	8.3%	16.0%

First Four	2.2%	5.3%	2.2%
First Round	1.3%	5.0%	1.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 0.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 4	8 - 12	9 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	19	@ UCLA	L	55-85	0.2%
Nov 09, 2023	92	@ San Francisco	L	63-85	2%
Nov 11, 2023	144	@ Santa Clara	L	67-85	4%
Nov 14, 2023	76	@ Penn St.	L	58-82	2%
Nov 25, 2023	258	Niagara	L	63-69	30%
Nov 29, 2023	274	@ Lehigh	L	68-79	17%
Dec 02, 2023	261	@ American	L	61-72	16%
Dec 10, 2023	148	@ Iona	L	65-83	6%
Dec 15, 2023	250	Mount St. Mary's	L	65-71	30%
Dec 20, 2023	285	Robert Morris	L	68-72	37%
Dec 30, 2023	294	Campbell	L	67-71	37%
Jan 04, 2024	301	@ Sacred Heart	L	71-80	21%
Jan 06, 2024	298	@ Wagner	L	60-69	21%
Jan 13, 2024	335	Central Connecticut St.	L	68-69	50%
Jan 15, 2024	314	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	76-78	42%
Jan 19, 2024	359	LIU Brooklyn	W	80-76	62%
Jan 21, 2024	362	@ Le Moyne	W	73-70	59%
Jan 25, 2024	301	Sacred Heart	L	74-77	39%
Jan 27, 2024	330	Merrimack	L	65-66	46%
Feb 01, 2024	335	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	66-72	30%
Feb 03, 2024	359	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	77-79	43%
Feb 10, 2024	350	Stonehill	W	72-70	55%
Feb 15, 2024	298	Wagner	L	63-66	39%
Feb 17, 2024	314	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	73-81	25%
Feb 22, 2024	330	@ Merrimack	L	62-69	28%
Feb 24, 2024	350	@ Stonehill	L	69-73	36%
Mar 02, 2024	362	Le Moyne	W	76-67	77%
Projected Record						9 - 18	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0		4.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	1.9	2.6	1.4	0.4	0.0				6.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	3.0	3.9	1.5	0.2	0.0					9.2	3rd
4th							0.0	0.9	3.6	4.5	1.5	0.1	0.0						10.7	4th
5th						0.1	1.2	4.9	5.3	1.5	0.1								12.9	5th
6th					0.1	1.6	5.6	5.7	1.5	0.1	0.0								14.6	6th
7th			0.0	0.5	2.7	5.9	5.2	1.3	0.1										15.6	7th
8th		0.1	1.3	3.8	5.8	3.7	0.9	0.0											15.6	8th
9th	0.5	1.9	3.1	2.8	1.4	0.3	0.0												10.0	9th

Total	0.5	1.9	4.4	7.1	10.0	11.6	12.8	12.8	11.0	9.4	7.6	5.0	3.2	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
14-2	94.6%	0.6		0.5	0.1
13-3	78.1%	1.3		0.9	0.4	0.0
12-4	47.3%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
11-5	15.4%	0.8		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-6	2.3%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	4.7%	4.7		2.6	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		73.9%	73.9%		14.8															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
15-1	0.2%		55.9%	55.9%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
14-2	0.7%		36.3%	36.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4
13-3	1.7%		28.5%	28.5%		15.9																0.0	0.4	1.2
12-4	3.2%		16.4%	16.4%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.5	2.6
11-5	5.0%		8.7%	8.7%		16.0																0.0	0.4	4.6
10-6	7.6%		5.3%	5.3%		16.0																0.0	0.4	7.2
9-7	9.4%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.2	9.2
8-8	11.0%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.9
7-9	12.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	12.8
6-10	12.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
5-11	11.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
4-12	10.0%																							10.0
3-13	7.1%																							7.1
2-14	4.4%																							4.4
1-15	1.9%																							1.9
0-16	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	15.9															0.0	0.1	2.5	97.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%