IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.4	#179
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.9	#107
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#158

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.8	#200

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.6%	24.5%	16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.7	14.4

.500 or above	83.7%	91.3%	74.9%
.500 or above in Conference	85.1%	89.3%	80.4%
Conference Champion	25.1%	29.9%	19.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.8%	1.1%	2.7%

First Four	1.6%	1.3%	2.0%
First Round	19.8%	23.9%	15.2%
Second Round	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 3	3 - 5
Quad 4	14 - 4	16 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2023	243	@ Dartmouth	W	74-73	54%
Nov 14, 2023	98	@ Georgia Tech	L	68-76	23%
Nov 16, 2023	65	@ Arizona St.	L	67-79	15%
Nov 20, 2023	279	@ St. Peter's	W	66-63	61%
Nov 29, 2023	350	@ Stonehill	W	76-67	79%
Dec 02, 2023	330	@ Merrimack	W	69-63	71%
Dec 09, 2023	192	@ Massachusetts	L	76-78	42%
Dec 12, 2023	359	LIU Brooklyn	W	87-70	93%
Dec 16, 2023	335	Central Connecticut St.	W	76-63	87%
Dec 22, 2023	313	@ Boston University	W	72-67	67%
Jan 06, 2024	288	@ New Hampshire	W	69-66	61%
Jan 11, 2024	339	NJIT	W	78-64	88%
Jan 13, 2024	292	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	80-70	79%
Jan 18, 2024	318	@ Albany	W	76-71	68%
Jan 20, 2024	297	@ Binghamton	W	73-69	63%
Jan 25, 2024	108	Vermont	L	70-71	46%
Feb 01, 2024	264	Maine	W	74-66	75%
Feb 03, 2024	288	New Hampshire	W	72-63	78%
Feb 08, 2024	292	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	77-73	62%
Feb 10, 2024	339	@ NJIT	W	75-67	74%
Feb 17, 2024	208	@ Bryant	L	80-81	45%
Feb 22, 2024	297	Binghamton	W	76-66	79%
Feb 24, 2024	318	Albany	W	79-68	83%
Feb 29, 2024	208	Bryant	W	83-78	65%
Mar 02, 2024	108	@ Vermont	L	67-74	28%
Mar 05, 2024	264	@ Maine	W	71-69	58%
Projected Record						16 - 10	11 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.2	1.2	4.0	6.7	7.1	4.5	1.4		25.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	3.3	7.7	8.2	4.8	1.1				25.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	4.0	7.2	4.8	1.3	0.1					18.1	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.6	4.9	2.2	0.3	0.0						11.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.5	2.6	3.4	1.1	0.1								7.7	5th
6th					0.0	0.4	1.9	2.3	0.7	0.1									5.3	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	1.2	1.3	0.4	0.0										3.3	7th
8th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.0											2.2	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0												1.0	9th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	2.5	3.9	6.0	8.4	10.6	13.0	14.0	13.5	11.6	8.2	4.5	1.4			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
15-1	100.0%	4.5		4.2	0.3
14-2	86.5%	7.1		5.4	1.6	0.0
13-3	57.8%	6.7		3.9	2.5	0.3	0.0
12-4	29.4%	4.0		1.5	1.9	0.6	0.0
11-5	8.8%	1.2		0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.2%	0.2			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	25.1%	25.1		16.6	7.0	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.4%		77.3%	73.8%	3.5%	11.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.3		13.3%
15-1	4.5%		57.4%	57.0%	0.4%	12.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.9		1.0%
14-2	8.2%		46.4%	46.4%		13.4											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	4.4
13-3	11.6%		34.6%	34.6%		14.0												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.1	7.6
12-4	13.5%		25.0%	25.0%		14.5													0.0	0.4	1.1	1.4	0.4	10.1
11-5	14.0%		18.6%	18.6%		15.0														0.1	0.6	1.1	0.7	11.4
10-6	13.0%		12.5%	12.5%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	11.4
9-7	10.6%		7.5%	7.5%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	9.8
8-8	8.4%		4.8%	4.8%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.0
7-9	6.0%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																0.0	0.2	5.8
6-10	3.9%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.1	3.9
5-11	2.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
4-12	1.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
3-13	0.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
2-14	0.3%																							0.3
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.6%	20.5%	0.1%	14.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	2.2	3.8	5.4	4.9	3.4	79.4		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	91.6%	7.1			1.9	7.9	8.8	29.3	7.4	7.9	12.1	8.4	7.9