Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#351
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#203
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#324
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#355
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.7 15.6
.500 or above 1.8% 8.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 11.4% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 57.9% 40.0% 58.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 95 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 129   @ Richmond L 60-78 4%    
  Nov 13, 2023 89   @ South Carolina L 57-78 2%    
  Nov 17, 2023 304   South Dakota L 68-73 33%    
  Nov 22, 2023 166   @ Air Force L 58-74 8%    
  Nov 29, 2023 277   @ Navy L 62-71 20%    
  Dec 02, 2023 322   Presbyterian L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 09, 2023 261   American L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 12, 2023 182   @ Radford L 60-75 9%    
  Dec 17, 2023 213   @ Longwood L 63-76 13%    
  Jan 03, 2024 242   @ Wofford L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 06, 2024 237   Mercer L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 11, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 13, 2024 165   @ Samford L 66-82 9%    
  Jan 17, 2024 104   Furman L 67-81 12%    
  Jan 20, 2024 320   The Citadel L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 24, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 27, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina L 65-79 13%    
  Jan 31, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro L 62-75 15%    
  Feb 03, 2024 237   @ Mercer L 61-73 17%    
  Feb 08, 2024 197   Chattanooga L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 10, 2024 165   Samford L 69-79 20%    
  Feb 14, 2024 104   @ Furman L 64-84 5%    
  Feb 17, 2024 320   @ The Citadel L 68-75 29%    
  Feb 21, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-75 17%    
  Feb 24, 2024 205   Western Carolina L 68-76 27%    
  Feb 28, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-78 7%    
  Mar 02, 2024 242   Wofford L 68-73 33%    
Projected Record 5 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.4 3.2 7.4 8.1 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 24.8 9th
10th 7.2 12.8 13.4 8.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 46.0 10th
Total 7.2 13.2 16.6 16.5 14.4 10.8 7.8 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 57.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 25.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 17.8% 17.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
8-10 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-11 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
6-12 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-13 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-14 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.4
3-15 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.5
2-16 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
1-17 13.2% 13.2
0-18 7.2% 7.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%