IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.9	#117
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.4	#49
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.7	#101

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.6%	24.4%	15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.9	12.6	13.5

.500 or above	83.8%	91.0%	74.2%
.500 or above in Conference	90.3%	93.4%	86.1%
Conference Champion	29.6%	35.2%	22.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
First Round	20.4%	24.3%	15.3%
Second Round	3.9%	5.2%	2.1%
Sweet Sixteen	1.1%	1.6%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Neutral) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	140	Southern Illinois	W	72-70	57%
Nov 08, 2024	102	South Florida	W	76-75	52%
Nov 15, 2024	97	Florida Atlantic	W	78-77	51%
Nov 17, 2024	110	Liberty	W	73-71	58%
Nov 20, 2024	325	@ The Citadel	W	77-68	80%
Nov 24, 2024	142	@ Rhode Island	L	78-79	46%
Nov 27, 2024	174	Northern Kentucky	W	78-72	71%
Dec 10, 2024	90	@ Saint Joseph's	L	73-80	27%
Dec 16, 2024	153	Wofford	W	78-73	68%
Dec 22, 2024	123	Oregon St.	W	73-72	51%
Jan 02, 2025	322	Hampton	W	86-71	90%
Jan 04, 2025	124	Towson	W	70-66	62%
Jan 09, 2025	155	@ Hofstra	L	73-74	48%
Jan 11, 2025	216	@ Monmouth	W	77-74	59%
Jan 16, 2025	301	@ Campbell	W	77-70	72%
Jan 18, 2025	220	Northeastern	W	78-69	77%
Jan 23, 2025	157	UNC Wilmington	W	77-71	68%
Jan 25, 2025	288	@ Elon	W	79-73	70%
Jan 30, 2025	260	Stony Brook	W	80-69	81%
Feb 01, 2025	247	@ William & Mary	W	76-72	63%
Feb 06, 2025	312	N.C. A&T	W	83-69	88%
Feb 08, 2025	288	Elon	W	82-70	85%
Feb 13, 2025	157	@ UNC Wilmington	L	73-74	49%
Feb 15, 2025	312	@ N.C. A&T	W	80-72	75%
Feb 20, 2025	220	@ Northeastern	W	75-72	60%
Feb 22, 2025	154	@ Drexel	L	71-72	49%
Feb 27, 2025	187	Delaware	W	78-71	72%
Mar 01, 2025	301	Campbell	W	80-67	86%
Projected Record						18 - 10	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.6	4.8	7.8	8.2	5.3	1.8		29.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	2.0	5.5	6.4	3.5	0.9	0.1			18.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	4.8	4.9	1.8	0.2	0.0				13.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.7	4.0	1.3	0.1						10.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.8	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0						7.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.8	2.9	1.1	0.1	0.0							6.0	6th
7th								0.0	0.8	2.3	1.2	0.1	0.0								4.4	7th
8th							0.0	0.3	1.5	1.2	0.2	0.0									3.2	8th
9th							0.1	0.8	1.2	0.3	0.0										2.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.0											1.9	10th
11th					0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.0												1.4	11th
12th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0													0.8	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0													0.5	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.2	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.6	2.5	4.1	5.9	8.1	10.0	12.1	13.4	13.1	11.5	9.1	5.4	1.8			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.8		1.8
17-1	98.8%	5.3		5.0	0.4
16-2	90.0%	8.2		6.6	1.5	0.1
15-3	67.4%	7.8		4.6	2.7	0.4	0.0
14-4	36.7%	4.8		1.8	2.1	0.8	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.8%	1.6		0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	29.6%	29.6		20.0	7.4	1.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.8%		68.7%	61.7%	7.0%	9.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.6		18.3%
17-1	5.4%		52.5%	50.9%	1.7%	11.6			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0		2.5		3.4%
16-2	9.1%		41.3%	41.0%	0.3%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.4	1.6	1.2	0.4	0.0		5.3		0.4%
15-3	11.5%		31.9%	31.9%	0.1%	12.9												0.1	1.1	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0	7.8		0.1%
14-4	13.1%		25.1%	25.1%	0.0%	13.4												0.0	0.5	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0	9.8		0.0%
13-5	13.4%		19.8%	19.8%		13.9													0.1	0.7	1.1	0.6	0.1	10.7
12-6	12.1%		13.2%	13.2%		14.3													0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	10.5
11-7	10.0%		8.2%	8.2%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	9.2
10-8	8.1%		6.0%	6.0%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	7.6
9-9	5.9%		2.7%	2.7%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	5.7
8-10	4.1%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.0
7-11	2.5%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7																0.0	0.0	2.5
6-12	1.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
5-13	0.9%																							0.9
4-14	0.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.6%	20.3%	0.2%	12.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.5	4.9	5.7	4.5	2.3	0.7	79.4		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	4.9	3.2	9.5	11.1	19.3	27.2	9.8	10.8	3.2	3.2	1.6	1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	74.5%	8.7				9.1			9.1	9.1	16.4	9.1	21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	56.4%	9.5							9.1		18.2	9.1	20.0