Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.7#17
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.3% 10.3% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 18.8% 18.9% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.2% 46.3% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.9% 44.1% 13.3%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.4
.500 or above 76.3% 76.5% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.5% 51.6% 22.4%
Conference Champion 5.1% 5.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 7.1% 23.2%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 1.8%
First Round44.1% 44.3% 13.4%
Second Round26.9% 27.0% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen11.7% 11.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.1% 0.8%
Final Four2.3% 2.3% 0.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 90-63 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 248   Southern W 85-68 95%    
  Nov 12, 2024 274   South Dakota W 93-74 96%    
  Nov 15, 2024 91   Washington St. W 77-73 63%    
  Nov 19, 2024 241   Rider W 88-71 94%    
  Nov 22, 2024 81   Utah St. W 83-80 61%    
  Nov 26, 2024 330   South Carolina Upstate W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 60   Northwestern W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 07, 2024 30   @ Michigan L 78-83 35%    
  Dec 12, 2024 8   Iowa St. L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 15, 2024 346   New Orleans W 97-72 98%    
  Dec 21, 2024 77   Utah W 83-80 60%    
  Dec 30, 2024 305   New Hampshire W 92-71 96%    
  Jan 03, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 07, 2025 51   Nebraska W 83-79 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 20   Indiana W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 46   @ USC L 79-82 41%    
  Jan 17, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 21, 2025 76   Minnesota W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 67   Penn St. W 84-79 66%    
  Jan 27, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 76-81 36%    
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Purdue L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 74-79 36%    
  Feb 16, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 34   Oregon W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 62   Washington W 87-82 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 81-86 33%    
  Feb 28, 2025 60   @ Northwestern L 74-76 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 09, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 80-82 43%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.9 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.5 0.1 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.4 5.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.6 0.1 5.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.2 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.5 10.6 10.1 9.9 8.7 7.5 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 78.6% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 51.7% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.1% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.2% 99.8% 16.5% 83.3% 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 5.6% 99.1% 11.3% 87.8% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 7.5% 96.2% 7.4% 88.8% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 95.9%
12-8 8.7% 90.0% 3.4% 86.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 89.6%
11-9 9.9% 74.7% 2.5% 72.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 2.5 74.1%
10-10 10.1% 52.3% 1.3% 51.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.3 0.2 4.8 51.7%
9-11 10.6% 23.4% 0.7% 22.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.1 22.9%
8-12 9.5% 7.3% 0.4% 6.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.8 6.9%
7-13 8.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.7%
6-14 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.0 0.0%
5-15 5.3% 5.3
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 46.2% 4.0% 42.1% 7.0 1.4 2.2 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.3 5.9 5.6 5.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 53.8 43.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0