Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#216
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#162
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#227
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 9.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 31.3% 62.5% 29.9%
.500 or above in Conference 54.7% 74.9% 53.8%
Conference Champion 5.7% 14.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 1.2% 5.7%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round4.7% 9.5% 4.5%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 614 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 24   @ Michigan St. L 59-77 5%    
  Nov 10, 2024 130   Temple L 68-73 33%    
  Nov 12, 2024 306   @ Northern Illinois W 73-71 56%    
  Nov 15, 2024 29   @ Rutgers L 60-78 6%    
  Nov 18, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. L 67-77 18%    
  Nov 21, 2024 198   Youngstown St. L 72-73 46%    
  Nov 22, 2024 164   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-75 30%    
  Nov 23, 2024 303   Presbyterian W 74-69 66%    
  Nov 30, 2024 68   @ Seton Hall L 62-76 11%    
  Dec 04, 2024 264   @ Lehigh L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 10, 2024 104   @ Princeton L 65-76 18%    
  Dec 21, 2024 237   Fairfield W 74-70 62%    
  Dec 30, 2024 10   @ Auburn L 64-86 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 260   Stony Brook W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 187   @ Delaware L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 157   UNC Wilmington L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   College of Charleston L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 312   @ N.C. A&T W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 301   @ Campbell W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 288   @ Elon W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 247   @ William & Mary L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   Drexel L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   Delaware W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   Hampton W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 124   Towson L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 260   @ Stony Brook L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 124   @ Towson L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 155   @ Hofstra L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   Northeastern W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 288   Elon W 76-69 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 65-71 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.2 0.1 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.6 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.7% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.4% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 68.2% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 35.7% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.2% 40.7% 9.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.1%
17-1 0.4% 40.7% 38.8% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1%
16-2 1.3% 30.9% 30.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5%
15-3 2.6% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.1%
14-4 4.2% 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5 0.1%
13-5 6.1% 13.3% 13.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.3
12-6 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.3
11-7 9.6% 5.6% 5.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.1
10-8 10.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10.5
9-9 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
8-10 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.0
7-11 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
6-12 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.5
5-13 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 4.5% 4.5
3-15 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%