Preseason Rankings
Rutgers
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#151
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 8.4% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 20.4% 20.8% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 33.4% 34.0% 10.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.9% 60.6% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 57.8% 27.4%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.5
.500 or above 74.8% 75.7% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.5% 60.1% 33.1%
Conference Champion 7.6% 7.8% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.9% 13.4%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 4.0%
First Round57.6% 58.4% 26.1%
Second Round38.8% 39.4% 14.9%
Sweet Sixteen19.0% 19.4% 4.6%
Elite Eight8.7% 8.9% 1.5%
Final Four4.1% 4.1% 0.7%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 285   Wagner W 70-49 98%    
  Nov 11, 2024 214   St. Peter's W 70-53 95%    
  Nov 15, 2024 216   Monmouth W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 20, 2024 243   Merrimack W 74-55 95%    
  Nov 24, 2024 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 82-73 80%    
  Nov 26, 2024 66   Notre Dame W 66-63 62%    
  Nov 27, 2024 5   Alabama L 74-80 28%    
  Nov 30, 2024 3   Houston L 60-67 28%    
  Dec 07, 2024 31   @ Ohio St. L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 10, 2024 67   Penn St. W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 14, 2024 68   Seton Hall W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 104   Princeton W 71-64 72%    
  Dec 30, 2024 230   Columbia W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 02, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 06, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 12   Purdue L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 13, 2025 23   UCLA W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 16, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 67   @ Penn St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 24   Michigan St. L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 60   @ Northwestern L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 30   Michigan W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 22   Illinois W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 09, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 45   Iowa W 79-74 64%    
  Feb 16, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 62   @ Washington W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 46   USC W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 66-73 30%    
  Mar 09, 2025 76   Minnesota W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.7 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.8 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.1 8.6 9.6 10.0 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.5 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.6% 0.5    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.3% 1.2    1.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.5% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 56.1% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 23.4% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.4% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.8% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.5% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.3 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.3% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 4.4 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 8.6% 99.2% 9.9% 89.3% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 9.7% 96.1% 5.4% 90.7% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-9 10.4% 87.3% 2.9% 84.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.3 86.9%
10-10 10.0% 70.8% 1.7% 69.1% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 70.3%
9-11 9.6% 38.5% 1.2% 37.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.9 37.8%
8-12 8.6% 13.8% 0.3% 13.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 13.5%
7-13 7.1% 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 2.3%
6-14 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.9% 6.5% 53.4% 6.1 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 40.1 57.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.8 17.2