Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#260
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#195
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#263
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#246
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 7.8% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 12.8 14.0
.500 or above 28.5% 62.5% 27.5%
.500 or above in Conference 40.1% 64.6% 39.4%
Conference Champion 2.5% 8.3% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 3.7% 10.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 7.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 713 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 26   @ Marquette L 63-83 3%    
  Nov 07, 2024 277   @ Central Michigan L 66-68 41%    
  Nov 11, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 59-73 10%    
  Nov 20, 2024 113   Yale L 65-70 32%    
  Nov 23, 2024 230   @ Columbia L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 27, 2024 181   @ Brown L 67-74 26%    
  Dec 01, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 07, 2024 229   Air Force L 65-67 45%    
  Dec 14, 2024 241   @ Rider L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 17, 2024 235   Marist W 66-64 55%    
  Dec 21, 2024 253   Maine W 68-65 59%    
  Dec 29, 2024 259   @ Albany L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 02, 2025 216   @ Monmouth L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 247   William & Mary W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 154   Drexel L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 220   Northeastern W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 187   @ Delaware L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 124   @ Towson L 59-69 20%    
  Jan 23, 2025 301   Campbell W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 312   N.C. A&T W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 69-80 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 124   Towson L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 155   @ Hofstra L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 216   Monmouth W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 220   @ Northeastern L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 322   @ Hampton W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   @ N.C. A&T W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 155   Hofstra L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 288   Elon W 74-69 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.5 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.4 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.2 1.4 0.1 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 8.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.8 7.1 9.4 11.0 11.7 11.7 10.7 9.4 7.3 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 63.6% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.1% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 76.6% 53.2% 23.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-1 0.1% 49.0% 47.3% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.2%
16-2 0.5% 33.0% 32.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8%
15-3 1.1% 21.4% 21.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.2% 18.6% 18.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8
13-5 3.5% 11.1% 11.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
12-6 5.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8
11-7 7.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
10-8 9.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.1
9-9 10.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
8-10 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 11.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.7
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%