Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.5#360
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 27.8% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.2 13.3
.500 or above 78.3% 93.3% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 93.9% 84.5%
Conference Champion 22.9% 35.3% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round18.0% 27.5% 16.5%
Second Round3.2% 6.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 413 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 53-65 13%    
  Nov 12, 2024 64   @ South Carolina L 56-65 20%    
  Nov 16, 2024 107   James Madison W 67-66 55%    
  Nov 20, 2024 215   @ Nicholls St. W 65-63 58%    
  Nov 24, 2024 320   @ Morgan St. W 72-64 77%    
  Nov 28, 2024 118   Kent St. L 63-64 48%    
  Nov 29, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 30, 2024 103   UC Irvine L 63-66 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 272   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-66 83%    
  Dec 14, 2024 128   Duquesne W 63-62 51%    
  Dec 17, 2024 295   @ Robert Morris W 68-62 70%    
  Dec 22, 2024 169   Bryant W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 09, 2025 220   Northeastern W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 61-62 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 155   Hofstra W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 260   Stony Brook W 69-59 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 312   N.C. A&T W 72-58 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ Northeastern W 64-62 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 187   @ Delaware W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 154   Drexel W 64-59 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 260   @ Stony Brook W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 216   @ Monmouth W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 187   Delaware W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 216   Monmouth W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 288   @ Elon W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 301   @ Campbell W 67-60 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 247   William & Mary W 68-59 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 322   Hampton W 74-59 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 6.5 5.9 3.6 1.1 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.8 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.5 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.3 9.6 11.1 12.3 13.1 11.3 9.7 6.6 3.7 1.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 98.8% 3.6    3.4 0.3
16-2 89.4% 5.9    4.7 1.2 0.1
15-3 66.8% 6.5    3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 36.2% 4.1    1.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.7 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 66.8% 58.1% 8.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 20.7%
17-1 3.7% 49.6% 47.2% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.6%
16-2 6.6% 43.5% 42.9% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 1.1%
15-3 9.7% 33.5% 33.4% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 0.2%
14-4 11.3% 27.5% 27.5% 13.3 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.2
13-5 13.1% 20.1% 20.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 10.4
12-6 12.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 10.6
11-7 11.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.1
10-8 9.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.0
9-9 7.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0
8-10 5.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
7-11 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.2% 18.0% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.1 5.1 4.1 2.4 0.8 81.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 9.6 21.2 11.5 21.2 15.4 11.5 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 7.6 40.0 20.0 40.0