Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.3#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 9.7% 10.0% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 23.4% 6.3%
Top 6 Seed 37.0% 37.8% 13.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.1% 65.1% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.2% 62.2% 34.6%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.4
.500 or above 82.9% 83.8% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 67.9% 43.5%
Conference Champion 10.3% 10.5% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.2% 9.6%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 5.0%
First Round62.1% 63.1% 33.9%
Second Round42.7% 43.5% 20.6%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 22.0% 8.0%
Elite Eight10.1% 10.3% 2.8%
Final Four4.8% 4.9% 0.9%
Championship Game2.1% 2.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 11
Quad 33 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   Rider W 76-57 97%    
  Nov 08, 2024 70   New Mexico W 73-69 65%    
  Nov 11, 2024 266   Boston University W 74-54 97%    
  Nov 15, 2024 264   Lehigh W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 20, 2024 315   Idaho St. W 74-50 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-54 96%    
  Nov 26, 2024 218   Southern Utah W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 03, 2024 62   Washington W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 08, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Arizona L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 17, 2024 344   Prairie View W 82-55 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 7   North Carolina L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 6   Gonzaga L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 07, 2025 30   Michigan W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 10, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 62-64 45%    
  Jan 13, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 17, 2025 45   Iowa W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 21, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 24, 2025 62   @ Washington W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 27, 2025 46   @ USC L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 34   Oregon W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   Penn St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 18, 2025 76   Minnesota W 70-62 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 28, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 64-70 31%    
  Mar 03, 2025 60   @ Northwestern W 63-62 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 46   USC W 70-65 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.8 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.2 0.1 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.7 9.7 10.5 10.5 9.7 8.6 7.0 5.1 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.5% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.5% 1.8    1.5 0.2 0.0
17-3 79.1% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 54.5% 2.8    1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.8% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.2 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.1% 48.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.1% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.0% 99.9% 17.3% 82.6% 3.6 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.6% 99.4% 13.2% 86.2% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 9.7% 97.6% 8.6% 89.0% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-8 10.5% 93.1% 4.7% 88.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 92.8%
11-9 10.5% 81.3% 2.7% 78.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.0 80.8%
10-10 9.7% 62.7% 1.6% 61.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.6 62.1%
9-11 8.7% 31.5% 0.8% 30.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.9 31.0%
8-12 7.4% 9.7% 0.5% 9.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.7 9.3%
7-13 6.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.5%
6-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.4 0.1%
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.1% 7.5% 56.6% 5.9 4.1 5.6 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.2 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 35.9 61.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.6 29.4