Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Pace76.7#18
Improvement+0.4#178

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#255
First Shot-1.9#229
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#259
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#224
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement-1.8#272

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#160
Layups/Dunks+0.3#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#188
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement+2.2#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.6% 11.9% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.3% 35.7% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 33 - 104 - 15
Quad 49 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 114   @ DePaul L 64-95 18%     0 - 1 -25.5 -11.0 -11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 151   @ South Alabama L 66-75 24%     0 - 2 -5.6 -2.4 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 82   @ South Carolina L 72-84 11%     0 - 3 -2.5 +7.7 -10.5
  Nov 25, 2024 179   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 39%     1 - 3 -0.1 +9.2 -9.4
  Nov 26, 2024 153   Miami (OH) L 72-75 32%     1 - 4 -2.3 -5.2 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 341   West Georgia W 86-72 84%     2 - 4 -0.5 +11.6 -11.3
  Dec 08, 2024 345   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 71%     3 - 4 -3.7 -0.9 -3.6
  Dec 15, 2024 358   Chicago St. W 75-63 88%     4 - 4 -5.0 -2.7 -2.2
  Dec 18, 2024 217   @ Queens L 66-73 37%     4 - 5 -7.5 -14.1 +7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 186   @ Winthrop L 97-102 31%     4 - 6 -4.0 +4.3 -7.3
  Dec 28, 2024 260   @ Georgia St. W 71-68 46%     5 - 6 -0.1 -5.7 +5.5
  Jan 01, 2025 123   Chattanooga W 99-94 OT 35%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +4.8 +6.6 -2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 295   @ VMI W 70-67 55%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -2.3 -9.9 +7.4
  Jan 08, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 68-70 40%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -3.4 -2.2 -1.3
  Jan 12, 2025 340   @ Western Carolina L 82-85 70%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -12.5 +0.3 -12.6
  Jan 15, 2025 108   Samford L 74-75 30%     7 - 9 2 - 3 +0.4 -2.5 +3.0
  Jan 18, 2025 155   @ Wofford L 49-69 25%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -16.9 -20.6 +2.1
  Jan 22, 2025 165   @ UNC Greensboro W 79-78 27%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +3.5 +3.4 +0.1
  Jan 25, 2025 173   Furman L 74-79 46%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -7.9 +2.4 -10.6
  Jan 29, 2025 359   The Citadel W 80-46 88%     9 - 11 4 - 5 +16.9 +0.5 +16.9
  Feb 01, 2025 123   @ Chattanooga L 84-93 20%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -4.2 +4.8 -8.4
  Feb 05, 2025 108   @ Samford L 79-100 16%     9 - 13 4 - 7 -14.6 -0.5 -11.8
  Feb 08, 2025 155   Wofford L 66-77 41%     9 - 14 4 - 8 -12.8 -12.0 -0.5
  Feb 12, 2025 173   @ Furman L 72-78 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 295   VMI W 78-72 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 359   @ The Citadel W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 165   UNC Greensboro L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-77 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 340   Western Carolina W 81-71 85%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 0.9 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 6.9 0.7 11.7 6th
7th 2.6 20.2 23.7 3.9 0.0 50.5 7th
8th 0.4 4.7 15.2 13.2 2.1 0.0 35.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 4.8 17.9 33.6 29.8 11.7 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.6
9-9 11.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.3
8-10 29.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.1 0.7 29.0
7-11 33.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.8 32.8
6-12 17.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.7
5-13 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.2%