South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#160
Pace60.9#349
Improvement+4.3#25

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#173
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#275
Layup/Dunks+1.9#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#116
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement+1.7#90

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#106
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#96
Layups/Dunks+10.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-16.0#364
Freethrows+2.8#25
Improvement+2.6#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 17.8% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.5% 95.5%
Conference Champion 38.9% 42.5% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.2% 17.8% 13.1%
Second Round1.7% 1.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 5
Quad 414 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 242   Central Michigan L 70-74 82%     0 - 1 -11.2 -1.7 -9.7
  Nov 08, 2024 210   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 58%     1 - 1 +6.2 +3.4 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2024 25   @ Mississippi L 54-64 9%     1 - 2 +7.4 -6.4 +13.1
  Nov 16, 2024 232   Mercer W 75-66 81%     2 - 2 +2.2 +0.4 +2.0
  Nov 25, 2024 293   Incarnate Word W 84-63 88%     3 - 2 +10.8 +9.5 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2024 338   Western Illinois L 63-64 93%     3 - 3 -15.0 -7.3 -7.9
  Nov 29, 2024 336   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 93%     4 - 3 -5.0 -0.5 -3.9
  Dec 08, 2024 168   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 71%     5 - 3 -1.2 +4.8 -5.9
  Dec 15, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 88%     6 - 3 -1.4 +7.2 -8.3
  Dec 16, 2024 65   @ TCU L 49-58 20%     6 - 4 +2.4 -7.7 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2024 138   James Madison W 77-49 65%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +26.3 +10.3 +19.0
  Jan 02, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. W 77-51 71%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +22.6 +13.2 +12.9
  Jan 04, 2025 284   @ Georgia Southern W 76-47 73%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +25.2 +3.9 +22.0
  Jan 09, 2025 99   Arkansas St. W 76-62 54%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +15.5 +16.5 +1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 273   Old Dominion L 63-71 OT 86%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -17.1 -12.8 -4.5
  Jan 15, 2025 268   Southern Miss W 73-62 86%    
  Jan 18, 2025 130   Troy W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 342   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   @ Troy L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 342   Louisiana Monroe W 74-57 94%    
  Feb 01, 2025 305   @ Louisiana W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 283   @ Coastal Carolina W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 197   Marshall W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 170   Texas St. W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 99   @ Arkansas St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   @ Texas St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 268   @ Southern Miss W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 28, 2025 305   Louisiana W 74-61 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 5.2 13.7 12.9 5.5 1.2 38.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.2 10.2 6.3 0.8 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 7.7 4.5 0.4 14.7 3rd
4th 0.6 4.5 4.6 0.6 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.0 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.8 11.7 17.9 20.5 20.4 13.6 5.5 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
16-2 100.0% 5.5    5.2 0.3
15-3 94.4% 12.9    9.7 3.0 0.1
14-4 67.2% 13.7    6.1 6.0 1.5 0.1
13-5 25.2% 5.2    0.8 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.9% 38.9 23.0 11.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 34.3% 34.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 5.5% 29.7% 29.7% 12.5 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.8
15-3 13.6% 26.9% 26.9% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 10.0
14-4 20.4% 21.7% 21.7% 13.4 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.2 16.0
13-5 20.5% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 17.2
12-6 17.9% 12.6% 12.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 15.7
11-7 11.7% 9.3% 9.3% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 10.6
10-8 5.8% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
9-9 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 6.3 1.8 0.1 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 1.0 42.6 53.5 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%