Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#170
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#97
Pace74.5#56
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#157
First Shot+1.7#126
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#271
Layup/Dunks-3.6#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#93
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement-2.0#318

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#207
First Shot-2.9#273
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#60
Layups/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement+2.1#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.8% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 85.7% 94.6% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 91.4% 85.5%
Conference Champion 19.7% 24.9% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round16.5% 19.7% 15.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 15 @Tennessee L 61-76 3%     0 - 1 +5.5 -1.1 +6.6
  Sun, Nov 9 142 Lipscomb W 92-77 54%     1 - 1 +13.2 +21.0 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 15 113 @Winthrop L 69-105 24%     1 - 2 -29.6 -12.8 -11.9
  Sat, Nov 22 243 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 54%     2 - 2 +10.2 +18.3 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 26 225 Appalachian St. W 75-67 72%     3 - 2 +1.2 +9.7 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 180 @Elon W 91-84 40%     4 - 2 +8.6 +7.3 +0.8
  Tue, Dec 2 337 Georgia St. W 78-67 88%     5 - 2 -2.8 -0.9 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 37 @Clemson L 63-70 7%     5 - 3 +8.4 +4.2 +3.5
  Wed, Dec 17 55 @Central Florida L 63-81 10%     5 - 4 -5.1 -6.9 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 20 149 @Washington St. L 75-80 33%    
  Wed, Dec 31 152 @Furman L 74-78 34%    
  Sat, Jan 3 124 @East Tennessee St. L 72-79 27%    
  Wed, Jan 7 354 The Citadel W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 Wofford W 80-74 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 331 @VMI W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 291 @UNC Greensboro W 79-76 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 297 Western Carolina W 83-74 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 221 @Wofford L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Jan 29 291 UNC Greensboro W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 331 VMI W 84-71 87%    
  Thu, Feb 5 247 @Chattanooga W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 232 @Samford W 79-78 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 152 Furman W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 354 @The Citadel W 80-70 80%    
  Thu, Feb 19 247 Chattanooga W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 232 Samford W 81-75 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 297 @Western Carolina W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 124 East Tennessee St. L 75-76 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.8 5.5 3.4 1.2 0.3 19.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.5 7.9 4.7 1.5 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 7.0 7.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.7 5.2 1.2 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 6.2 9.3 12.2 14.7 14.6 13.9 10.9 6.9 3.5 1.2 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.1% 3.4    3.0 0.4
15-3 78.8% 5.5    3.9 1.5 0.1
14-4 53.5% 5.8    2.8 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 20.9% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1
12-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.0 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 53.3% 53.3% 11.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 43.9% 43.9% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7
16-2 3.5% 39.6% 39.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.9% 31.1% 31.1% 13.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 4.8
14-4 10.9% 26.7% 26.7% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.0
13-5 13.9% 22.1% 22.1% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.0 10.8
12-6 14.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 12.2
11-7 14.7% 11.7% 11.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 13.0
10-8 12.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.0
9-9 9.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 8.6
8-10 6.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.9
7-11 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
6-12 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.3 4.7 1.3 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 79.2 12.5 8.3