IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.8	#248
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.7	#23
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#272

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	10.6%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	12.9	14.4

.500 or above	25.0%	59.3%	24.7%
.500 or above in Conference	43.8%	70.8%	43.6%
Conference Champion	4.7%	13.1%	4.7%
Last Place in Conference	10.7%	3.8%	10.8%

First Four	0.8%	0.4%	0.8%
First Round	4.4%	10.6%	4.4%
Second Round	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 13
Quad 4	9 - 5	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	55-80	1%
Nov 09, 2025	188	Lipscomb	W	72-71	51%
Nov 15, 2025	161	@ Winthrop	L	78-85	25%
Nov 22, 2025	174	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	72-79	28%
Nov 26, 2025	201	Appalachian St.	W	66-65	52%
Nov 29, 2025	228	@ Elon	L	69-73	36%
Dec 02, 2025	284	Georgia St.	W	79-74	67%
Dec 13, 2025	42	@ Clemson	L	60-80	4%
Dec 17, 2025	74	@ Central Florida	L	72-87	9%
Dec 20, 2025	124	@ Washington St.	L	73-83	20%
Dec 31, 2025	133	@ Furman	L	68-78	21%
Jan 03, 2026	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	67-75	24%
Jan 07, 2026	342	The Citadel	W	75-65	80%
Jan 10, 2026	206	Wofford	W	71-70	53%
Jan 15, 2026	296	@ VMI	L	74-75	48%
Jan 17, 2026	225	@ UNC Greensboro	L	67-71	36%
Jan 21, 2026	273	Western Carolina	W	78-74	64%
Jan 24, 2026	206	@ Wofford	L	68-73	33%
Jan 29, 2026	225	UNC Greensboro	W	70-68	56%
Jan 31, 2026	296	VMI	W	77-71	68%
Feb 05, 2026	125	@ Chattanooga	L	70-80	21%
Feb 07, 2026	166	@ Samford	L	76-83	28%
Feb 11, 2026	133	Furman	L	71-75	38%
Feb 14, 2026	342	@ The Citadel	W	72-68	62%
Feb 19, 2026	125	Chattanooga	L	73-77	38%
Feb 21, 2026	166	Samford	L	79-80	47%
Feb 25, 2026	273	@ Western Carolina	L	75-77	45%
Feb 28, 2026	152	East Tennessee St.	L	70-72	43%
Projected Record						11 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.3	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0		4.7	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	2.2	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.0				6.8	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.3	3.1	2.9	1.1	0.1	0.0					8.6	3rd
4th									0.3	1.8	4.2	3.1	0.7	0.1							10.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	5.3	3.4	0.7	0.0								12.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.1	5.5	3.3	0.6	0.0									13.0	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.7	5.5	2.9	0.5	0.0										13.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.5	4.0	4.7	2.4	0.3												13.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.1	3.8	3.2	1.3	0.2													11.2	9th
10th	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.0	1.2	0.4	0.0														6.5	10th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.3	4.3	6.6	8.6	10.3	11.4	11.5	10.9	9.8	7.7	6.1	4.4	2.4	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	96.9%	0.6		0.6	0.0	0.0
15-3	78.3%	1.2		0.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	53.0%	1.3		0.6	0.5	0.1
13-5	22.7%	1.0		0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	4.9%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.7%	4.7		2.6	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		66.8%	66.8%		11.9												0.0	0.0		0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		29.8%	29.8%		11.6												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2
16-2	0.7%		43.1%	43.1%		12.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.4
15-3	1.6%		23.3%	23.3%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.2
14-4	2.4%		21.1%	21.1%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.9
13-5	4.4%		14.2%	14.2%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	3.8
12-6	6.1%		11.4%	11.4%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	5.4
11-7	7.7%		8.4%	8.4%		16.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	7.0
10-8	9.8%		5.2%	5.2%		17.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	9.3
9-9	10.9%		3.1%	3.1%		16.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.6
8-10	11.5%		2.0%	2.0%		17.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	11.2
7-11	11.4%		1.0%	1.0%		17.7																	0.1	11.3
6-12	10.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.2
5-13	8.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	8.6
4-14	6.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
3-15	4.3%																							4.3
2-16	2.3%																							2.3
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.5%	4.5%	0.0%	15.1												0.1	0.4	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.2	95.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%