Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
12 Gonzaga 100.0%   3   30 - 3 16 - 2 +18.9      +8.7 32 +10.2 11 72.1 84 +22.0 6 +17.2 2
30 St. Mary's 99.3%   8   26 - 5 16 - 2 +14.5      +6.6 53 +7.9 23 64.1 296 +15.6 30 +18.8 1
45 Santa Clara 66.9%   11   25 - 8 15 - 3 +12.7      +9.7 24 +3.0 93 72.2 82 +13.0 42 +15.7 3
118 Pacific 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 10 +3.0      +0.6 148 +2.4 110 62.8 323 +2.0 131 +0.3 7
119 San Francisco 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 10 +3.0      +2.9 97 +0.1 170 65.5 260 +2.6 121 +2.5 5
120 Seattle 0.0%   18 - 13 8 - 10 +2.8      -5.3 305 +8.0 21 68.8 164 +3.1 118 +1.2 6
132 Washington St. 0.0%   11 - 20 7 - 11 +1.8      +3.0 95 -1.2 213 69.5 144 -1.1 180 -0.1 8
150 Oregon St. 0.0%   17 - 16 9 - 9 +0.5      +0.2 157 +0.3 159 64.1 295 +2.2 127 +3.2 4
166 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   14 - 17 6 - 12 -0.1      -2.0 219 +1.8 124 67.9 193 -1.2 186 -1.6 10
208 Portland 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 12 -2.5      -2.5 237 -0.1 173 70.5 121 -0.7 173 -1.2 9
225 San Diego 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 13 -3.7      -0.7 182 -3.0 263 69.8 135 -4.2 237 -3.7 11
272 Pepperdine 0.0%   7 - 23 4 - 14 -6.3      -2.8 244 -3.5 280 70.4 123 -6.8 271 -4.7 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
Santa Clara 3.0 100.0
Oregon St. 4.0 100.0
Seattle 5.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.0 100.0
Pacific 5.0 100.0
Washington St. 8.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 9.0 100.0
Portland 9.0 100.0
San Diego 11.0 100.0
Pepperdine 12.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
St. Mary's 16 - 2 26 - 5 100.0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 30 - 3 100.0
Santa Clara 15 - 3 25 - 8 100.0
Oregon St. 9 - 9 17 - 16 100.0
Seattle 8 - 10 18 - 13 100.0
San Francisco 8 - 10 16 - 16 100.0
Pacific 8 - 10 16 - 15 100.0
Washington St. 7 - 11 11 - 20 100.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 14 - 17 100.0
Portland 6 - 12 13 - 19 100.0
San Diego 5 - 13 10 - 21 100.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 7 - 23 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
Santa Clara
Oregon St.
Seattle
San Francisco
Pacific
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount
Portland
San Diego
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   3.4 25.7 33.9 29.7 7.0 0.2
St. Mary's 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 8   0.0 0.2 1.7 10.8 24.3 32.3 24.6 5.3 0.1 0.7 99.3%
Santa Clara 66.9% 0.0% 66.9% 11   0.0 0.1 1.1 8.5 31.1 26.0 0.2 33.1 66.9%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Seattle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 0.2 33.3 66.5
1st Round 100.0% 2.6 0.3 41.2 58.5
2nd Round 98.3% 1.7 1.7 35.5 51.7 11.2
Sweet Sixteen 66.1% 0.8 33.9 57.1 8.8 0.3
Elite Eight 29.8% 0.3 70.2 28.6 1.2 0.0
Final Four 10.9% 0.1 89.1 10.8 0.1
Final Game 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 59.3% 26.0% 9.8% 3.5% 1.0%
St. Mary's 99.3% 0.1% 99.3% 54.7% 11.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Santa Clara 66.9% 17.8% 59.0% 22.5% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%