Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Dec 13, 2025
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 53.5% 46.5% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 100.0%
1  Iowa St. Auto 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 100.0%
1  Arizona At-Large 99.9% 22.7% 77.2% 99.8%
2  Purdue At-Large 99.9% 15.5% 84.3% 99.8%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0%
2  Gonzaga Auto 99.9% 77.9% 22.0% 99.6%
2  Alabama Auto 98.9% 20.8% 78.0% 98.6%
3  Vanderbilt At-Large 99.1% 18.9% 80.1% 98.9%
3  Houston At-Large 99.4% 17.2% 82.2% 99.2%
3  BYU At-Large 99.4% 13.9% 85.4% 99.3%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 99.1% 8.9% 90.2% 99.0%
4  Illinois At-Large 99.0% 9.4% 89.5% 98.9%
4  Louisville At-Large 98.4% 17.5% 80.9% 98.0%
4  Florida At-Large 92.5% 15.3% 77.2% 91.1%
4  Kansas At-Large 92.5% 7.3% 85.3% 92.0%
5  St. John's At-Large 94.4% 28.1% 66.4% 92.3%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 85.9% 4.8% 81.0% 85.2%
5  North Carolina At-Large 93.5% 7.8% 85.7% 92.9%
5  Arkansas At-Large 83.7% 7.0% 76.8% 82.5%
6  Tennessee At-Large 85.7% 9.3% 76.4% 84.2%
6  Auburn At-Large 79.2% 5.1% 74.1% 78.1%
6  Georgia At-Large 85.9% 8.1% 77.8% 84.7%
6  Iowa At-Large 85.9% 2.5% 83.4% 85.5%
7  Virginia At-Large 89.8% 7.2% 82.6% 89.0%
7  Nebraska At-Large 85.8% 1.8% 84.0% 85.5%
7  Kentucky At-Large 63.5% 6.6% 56.9% 60.9%
7  Indiana At-Large 76.0% 2.7% 73.4% 75.4%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 74.0% 1.7% 72.3% 73.5%
8  UCLA At-Large 74.6% 1.9% 72.7% 74.2%
8  Baylor At-Large 69.2% 2.2% 67.0% 68.5%
8  North Carolina St. At-Large 77.3% 5.9% 71.4% 75.9%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  USC At-Large 76.9% 0.9% 76.1% 76.7%
9  SMU At-Large 79.9% 3.4% 76.5% 79.2%
9  Clemson At-Large 73.7% 4.9% 68.8% 72.3%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 67.7% 4.5% 63.2% 66.1%
10  LSU At-Large 52.8% 2.2% 50.6% 51.7%
10  Villanova At-Large 57.0% 7.2% 49.8% 53.6%
10  Oklahoma St. At-Large 55.0% 0.9% 54.1% 54.6%
10  TCU At-Large 45.2% 0.9% 44.4% 44.7%
10  Wisconsin At-Large 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 44.8%
11  Butler At-Large 44.5% 4.0% 40.6% 42.3%
11  Central Florida At-Large 41.0% 0.5% 40.5% 40.7%
11  Utah St. Auto 50.7% 24.1% 26.6% 35.0%
11  Saint Louis Auto 44.6% 29.7% 14.8% 21.1%
11  Memphis Auto 30.0% 27.2% 2.9% 3.9%
12  Akron Auto 52.9% 52.1% 0.8% 1.6%
12  Belmont Auto 27.7% 26.7% 1.0% 1.3%
12  Yale Auto 57.1% 56.9% 0.2% 0.5%
12  McNeese St. Auto 59.5% 59.4% 0.1% 0.3%
13  UC San Diego Auto 30.8% 30.7% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Utah Valley Auto 51.5% 51.4% 0.1% 0.1%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Liberty Auto 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0%
14  High Point Auto 46.1% 46.1%
14  Troy Auto 19.2% 19.2%
14  East Tennessee St. Auto 37.0% 37.0%
14  Northern Colorado Auto 16.4% 16.4%
15  Quinnipiac Auto 22.5% 22.5%
15  Lipscomb Auto 30.0% 30.0%
15  Oakland Auto 22.5% 22.5%
15  North Dakota St. Auto 27.5% 27.5%
16  Colgate Auto 31.7% 31.7%
16  Vermont Auto 41.0% 41.0%
16  Southeast Missouri St. Auto 18.6% 18.6%
16  Southern Auto 25.7% 25.7%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 37.7% 37.7%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 50.1% 50.1%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgia 85.9% 8.1% 77.8% 84.7%
Tennessee 85.7% 9.3% 76.4% 84.2%
Arkansas 83.7% 7.0% 76.8% 82.5%
SMU 79.9% 3.4% 76.5% 79.2%
Auburn 79.2% 5.1% 74.1% 78.1%
USC 76.9% 0.9% 76.1% 76.7%
North Carolina St. 77.3% 5.9% 71.4% 75.9%
Indiana 76.0% 2.7% 73.4% 75.4%
UCLA 74.6% 1.9% 72.7% 74.2%
Ohio St. 74.0% 1.7% 72.3% 73.5%
Clemson 73.7% 4.9% 68.8% 72.3%
Baylor 69.2% 2.2% 67.0% 68.5%
Miami (FL) 67.7% 4.5% 63.2% 66.1%
Kentucky 63.5% 6.6% 56.9% 60.9%
Oklahoma St. 55.0% 0.9% 54.1% 54.6%
Villanova 57.0% 7.2% 49.8% 53.6%
LSU 52.8% 2.2% 50.6% 51.7%
Wisconsin 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 44.8%
TCU 45.2% 0.9% 44.4% 44.7%
Butler 44.5% 4.0% 40.6% 42.3%
Central Florida 41.0% 0.5% 40.5% 40.7%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
St. Mary's 49.2% 14.3% 34.8% 40.6%
Wake Forest 41.0% 1.5% 39.5% 40.1%
Texas 39.7% 1.9% 37.9% 38.6%
Washington 37.8% 0.4% 37.5% 37.6%
Seton Hall 37.8% 2.3% 35.5% 36.3%
Missouri 36.2% 1.2% 35.0% 35.4%
Oklahoma 36.1% 1.2% 34.8% 35.3%
Notre Dame 34.3% 0.8% 33.5% 33.8%
Boise St. 48.0% 22.1% 25.9% 33.2%
Texas A&M 33.9% 1.4% 32.5% 33.0%
Arizona St. 31.6% 0.3% 31.3% 31.4%
Colorado 29.9% 0.3% 29.5% 29.6%
Creighton 31.4% 4.0% 27.4% 28.5%
Virginia Tech 25.6% 0.5% 25.1% 25.2%
Syracuse 21.4% 0.6% 20.9% 21.0%
Mississippi 20.9% 0.8% 20.0% 20.2%
California 20.4% 0.4% 20.0% 20.1%
San Diego St. 31.7% 18.5% 13.2% 16.2%
Xavier 15.2% 1.5% 13.7% 13.9%
Northwestern 12.8% 0.1% 12.7% 12.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.2% 24.9% 9.3% 12.4%
Cincinnati 11.5% 0.2% 11.4% 11.4%
West Virginia 11.5% 0.2% 11.3% 11.4%
New Mexico 18.8% 9.4% 9.4% 10.4%
Providence 10.6% 1.5% 9.1% 9.2%
Kansas St. 8.4% 0.1% 8.2% 8.2%
Santa Clara 11.9% 4.1% 7.8% 8.1%
Colorado St. 17.0% 10.6% 6.4% 7.1%
Georgetown 7.3% 0.7% 6.6% 6.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Stanford 6.4% 0.2% 6.2% 6.2%
Dayton 15.9% 11.1% 4.8% 5.4%
Mississippi St. 5.0% 0.1% 4.9% 4.9%
George Mason 14.7% 11.0% 3.7% 4.2%
Oregon 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 3.8%
Maryland 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0%
South Carolina 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 2.9%
Marquette 2.8% 0.7% 2.1% 2.2%
Florida St. 1.8% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7%
Tulsa 18.7% 17.5% 1.1% 1.4%
George Washington 11.2% 10.1% 1.1% 1.3%
Utah 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%
Minnesota 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Pittsburgh 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Nevada 5.6% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1%
Penn St. 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
St. Bonaventure 4.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.9%
South Florida 18.3% 17.7% 0.6% 0.8%
Wyoming 4.8% 4.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Richmond 4.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.7%
San Francisco 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Grand Canyon 5.1% 4.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Northern Iowa 16.7% 16.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Wichita St. 14.8% 14.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Illinois St. 18.6% 18.3% 0.2% 0.3%
DePaul 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Rutgers 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Seattle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 1.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Rhode Island 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Murray St. 10.0% 9.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
UAB 8.5% 8.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (OH) 13.6% 13.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Davidson 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 32.1% 32.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%