Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Jan 28, 2026
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 39.0% 61.1% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 100.0%
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 100.0%
1  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% 100.0%
2  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 100.0%
2  Houston At-Large 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 100.0%
3  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 100.0%
3  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 100.0%
3  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 72.5% 27.5% 99.9%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 99.9% 9.5% 90.5% 99.9%
4  Florida Auto 99.8% 22.4% 77.4% 99.8%
4  BYU At-Large 99.9% 8.3% 91.6% 99.8%
4  Arkansas At-Large 99.7% 12.2% 87.4% 99.6%
5  Alabama At-Large 99.1% 13.1% 85.9% 98.9%
5  Kansas At-Large 99.6% 6.8% 92.8% 99.5%
5  Virginia At-Large 99.7% 12.0% 87.6% 99.6%
5  Tennessee At-Large 97.0% 9.5% 87.5% 96.7%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.3% 27.3% 72.1% 99.1%
6  Auburn At-Large 92.9% 5.6% 87.3% 92.5%
6  Louisville At-Large 96.4% 10.1% 86.3% 96.0%
6  Kentucky At-Large 88.7% 4.6% 84.0% 88.1%
7  Georgia At-Large 93.3% 4.6% 88.7% 93.0%
7  Iowa At-Large 91.6% 2.7% 88.9% 91.4%
7  North Carolina At-Large 94.3% 4.5% 89.8% 94.0%
7  Texas A&M At-Large 91.2% 5.4% 85.8% 90.7%
8  Clemson At-Large 95.4% 6.2% 89.2% 95.1%
8  North Carolina St. At-Large 91.5% 7.4% 84.1% 90.9%
8  Villanova At-Large 89.8% 11.8% 78.0% 88.5%
8  SMU At-Large 87.7% 3.9% 83.8% 87.2%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Saint Louis Auto 88.6% 52.8% 35.7% 75.7%
9  Texas At-Large 68.3% 3.1% 65.2% 67.3%
9  Wisconsin At-Large 73.3% 0.7% 72.6% 73.1%
9  Ohio St. At-Large 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 72.6%
10  UCLA At-Large 73.2% 0.8% 72.4% 73.0%
10  Central Florida At-Large 75.0% 0.4% 74.6% 74.9%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 72.2% 3.0% 69.2% 71.4%
10  Indiana At-Large 66.2% 1.1% 65.1% 65.8%
11  Utah St. Auto 66.3% 27.2% 39.1% 53.7%
11  New Mexico At-Large 54.9% 22.3% 32.6% 41.9%
11  USC At-Large 61.3% 0.3% 61.1% 61.2%
11  TCU At-Large 55.6% 0.4% 55.3% 55.5%
11  Missouri At-Large 36.2% 0.4% 35.8% 36.0%
11  South Florida Auto 26.5% 25.9% 0.6% 0.8%
12  Belmont Auto 31.6% 31.2% 0.4% 0.6%
12  Akron Auto 47.5% 47.5% 0.0% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 55.0% 55.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12  Yale Auto 65.4% 65.4% 0.0% 0.1%
13  Liberty Auto 34.7% 34.6% 0.0% 0.1%
13  Hawaii Auto 38.8% 38.8%
13  Troy Auto 45.2% 45.2%
13  High Point Auto 52.7% 52.7%
14  Utah Valley Auto 41.7% 41.7%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 24.2% 24.2%
14  St. Thomas Auto 35.9% 35.9%
14  Oakland Auto 29.3% 29.3%
15  Portland St. Auto 24.0% 24.0%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 32.7% 32.7%
15  Lipscomb Auto 26.1% 26.1%
15  Marist Auto 24.4% 24.4%
16  Navy Auto 32.3% 32.3%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 24.2% 24.2%
16  Vermont Auto 42.3% 42.3%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 52.8% 52.8%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 23.9% 23.9%
16  Howard Auto 32.9% 32.9%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Central Florida 75.0% 0.4% 74.6% 74.9%
Wisconsin 73.3% 0.7% 72.6% 73.1%
UCLA 73.2% 0.8% 72.4% 73.0%
Ohio St. 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 72.6%
Miami (FL) 72.2% 3.0% 69.2% 71.4%
Texas 68.3% 3.1% 65.2% 67.3%
Indiana 66.2% 1.1% 65.1% 65.8%
USC 61.3% 0.3% 61.1% 61.2%
TCU 55.6% 0.4% 55.3% 55.5%
New Mexico 54.9% 22.3% 32.6% 41.9%
Missouri 36.2% 0.4% 35.8% 36.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. 47.3% 21.4% 25.9% 32.9%
LSU 31.8% 0.7% 31.1% 31.3%
Seton Hall 32.6% 2.5% 30.0% 30.8%
St. Mary's 40.8% 15.0% 25.8% 30.4%
Virginia Tech 29.9% 0.4% 29.5% 29.6%
West Virginia 28.5% 0.3% 28.2% 28.3%
Butler 29.9% 2.6% 27.3% 28.1%
Washington 25.0% 0.2% 24.8% 24.9%
Baylor 20.4% 0.3% 20.1% 20.2%
Creighton 22.3% 3.2% 19.1% 19.7%
California 19.9% 0.3% 19.6% 19.7%
Oklahoma St. 16.9% 0.1% 16.8% 16.8%
Santa Clara 24.6% 10.5% 14.1% 15.7%
Stanford 14.4% 0.1% 14.3% 14.4%
Boise St. 19.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.4% 19.5% 7.9% 9.8%
Mississippi 5.0% 0.2% 4.9% 4.9%
Oklahoma 4.5% 0.1% 4.4% 4.4%
Cincinnati 4.5% 0.2% 4.3% 4.3%
Wake Forest 3.6% 0.2% 3.4% 3.4%
Xavier 3.5% 0.9% 2.6% 2.6%
Arizona St. 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Nevada 9.7% 7.4% 2.3% 2.5%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 7.9% 2.3% 2.4%
George Mason 8.8% 7.1% 1.7% 1.8%
Syracuse 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 1.7%
Minnesota 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Colorado 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5%
DePaul 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 1.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
South Carolina 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3%
Notre Dame 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3%
Mississippi St. 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%
Providence 2.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%
Miami (OH) 29.4% 28.7% 0.7% 1.0%
Northwestern 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Tulsa 24.8% 24.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Georgetown 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Dayton 5.5% 4.9% 0.5% 0.6%
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
George Washington 10.1% 9.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Colorado St. 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Oregon 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Murray St. 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1%
San Francisco 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%