Preseason Rankings
Southland
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 McNeese St. 49.7%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 18 - 4 +5.7      +1.8 118 +3.8 74 64.4 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Lamar 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 10 -2.9      -3.7 279 +0.7 142 64.1 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Incarnate Word 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 10 -3.1      -0.4 177 -2.7 265 62.8 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Stephen F. Austin 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 10 -3.4      -4.4 296 +1.0 135 68.1 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 12 - 10 -3.5      -3.1 266 -0.3 177 68.4 173 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Nicholls St. 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 11 -4.3      -3.4 273 -0.9 198 69.9 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 SE Louisiana 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 11 -4.8      -2.9 253 -1.9 237 67.5 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Northwestern St. 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 11 - 11 -5.1      -3.4 272 -1.7 227 61.5 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 UT Rio Grande Valley 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 12 -6.2      -2.7 247 -3.5 287 74.6 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Houston Christian 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 13 -7.1      -3.9 287 -3.2 282 62.8 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 New Orleans 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 8 - 14 -8.8      -3.0 262 -5.8 341 72.2 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 East Texas A&M 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 15 -10.3      -6.7 345 -3.6 293 67.1 209 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.8 65.3 16.6 7.9 4.0 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5.2 8.5 14.2 13.1 11.5 10.7 9.5 8.2 7.2 6.0 4.9 3.8 2.3
Incarnate Word 5.3 8.3 13.5 12.9 11.6 10.7 9.1 8.0 7.6 6.2 5.3 4.2 2.6
Stephen F. Austin 5.5 7.1 12.6 12.0 12.1 10.9 9.8 8.6 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.0 2.8
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.5 7.2 12.6 12.1 11.4 10.3 9.8 8.8 7.5 7.0 5.9 4.6 2.8
Nicholls St. 6.0 4.9 10.3 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.5 9.5 9.0 7.9 7.0 5.3 3.8
SE Louisiana 6.2 4.4 8.8 10.3 10.4 10.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 8.0 7.7 6.4 4.6
Northwestern St. 6.4 3.9 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 8.9 8.5 6.8 5.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 7.1 2.6 5.9 7.8 8.3 8.9 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.1 9.2 7.3
Houston Christian 7.6 1.9 4.6 5.6 6.6 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.5 11.1 11.8 11.5 10.1
New Orleans 8.5 0.7 2.6 3.7 4.8 6.0 7.2 8.5 10.4 11.4 13.3 15.0 16.4
East Texas A&M 9.2 0.6 1.5 2.2 3.4 4.2 5.3 6.9 8.4 10.9 14.0 18.0 24.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.6 8.3 10.9 12.9 15.3 15.1 12.2 5.8
Lamar 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.6 7.1 8.3 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.1 8.6 7.2 5.4 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2
Incarnate Word 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 6.0 7.3 7.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 9.2 7.8 6.5 5.4 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.8 6.4 7.2 8.5 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.4 7.5 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.2 6.4 7.2 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.5 8.8 7.5 6.1 5.0 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
Nicholls St. 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.7 5.9 7.4 8.6 9.4 10.0 9.6 8.7 8.2 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
SE Louisiana 11 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 5.1 6.4 7.8 8.8 10.0 9.2 9.3 8.5 7.8 6.5 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northwestern St. 11 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.1 8.4 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.5 8.0 7.2 5.9 4.0 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.1 5.5 6.8 8.6 9.2 10.1 9.3 9.0 8.5 7.0 5.9 4.3 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 9 - 13 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.0 7.1 8.3 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.7 8.5 7.2 5.9 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 8 - 14 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.4 9.9 10.0 10.6 9.8 7.9 6.8 5.4 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 1.0 3.1 5.5 8.3 9.7 10.2 11.4 10.7 9.8 7.9 6.3 5.0 3.7 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 65.3% 55.6 8.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
Lamar 8.5% 5.4 2.4 0.6 0.1
Incarnate Word 8.3% 5.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 7.1% 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.2% 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.1
Nicholls St. 4.9% 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 4.4% 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 3.9% 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.6% 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 1.9% 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.6% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 49.7% 49.5% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 9.7 17.3 11.8 6.5 1.7 0.4 50.3 0.3%
Lamar 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 0.7 92.1 0.0%
Incarnate Word 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.5 1.7 0.6 92.1 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.8 93.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.8 93.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.7 94.7 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 95.3 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.9 95.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 97.1 0.0%
Houston Christian 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 98.0 0.0%
New Orleans 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.9 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 49.7% 0.3% 49.7% 8.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 7.9% 0.2% 7.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 7.9% 0.2% 8.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.9% 0.3% 6.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0% 0.4% 6.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.3% 0.3% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.7% 0.4% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.1% 0.4% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.9% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 2.0% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 97.1 1.6
2nd Round 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0