Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2025-26



View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Purdue Auto 98.7% 33.0% 65.7% 98.0%
1  Houston Auto 99.1% 39.1% 60.0% 98.5%
1  Duke Auto 98.0% 40.8% 57.2% 96.6%
1  Connecticut Auto 97.7% 43.5% 54.2% 95.9%
2  Florida Auto 95.7% 26.0% 69.8% 94.2%
2  Michigan At-Large 92.5% 14.9% 77.6% 91.2%
2  Kentucky At-Large 89.9% 15.8% 74.1% 88.0%
2  St. John's At-Large 90.4% 23.6% 66.9% 87.5%
3  BYU At-Large 88.8% 11.8% 77.0% 87.3%
3  Kansas At-Large 85.1% 9.5% 75.6% 83.6%
3  Alabama At-Large 75.9% 8.1% 67.8% 73.8%
3  Arizona At-Large 86.5% 10.8% 75.7% 84.9%
4  Illinois At-Large 85.2% 9.1% 76.1% 83.7%
4  Louisville At-Large 88.9% 18.7% 70.2% 86.4%
4  UCLA At-Large 85.3% 9.5% 75.8% 83.8%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 85.3% 10.1% 75.2% 83.6%
5  Tennessee At-Large 81.3% 9.6% 71.6% 79.3%
5  Arkansas At-Large 79.2% 9.0% 70.3% 77.2%
5  Auburn At-Large 70.0% 7.1% 62.9% 67.7%
5  Michigan St. At-Large 77.8% 6.0% 71.8% 76.4%
6  Iowa St. At-Large 77.0% 7.5% 69.5% 75.2%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 71.2% 4.5% 66.7% 69.9%
6  Oregon At-Large 67.2% 4.1% 63.0% 65.7%
6  Baylor At-Large 69.8% 4.9% 64.9% 68.3%
7  Ohio St. At-Large 69.7% 4.5% 65.2% 68.3%
7  Creighton At-Large 73.0% 11.0% 61.9% 69.6%
7  USC At-Large 64.2% 3.7% 60.6% 62.9%
7  Mississippi St. At-Large 60.5% 3.5% 57.0% 59.1%
8  North Carolina At-Large 72.9% 9.7% 63.2% 70.0%
8  Mississippi At-Large 61.5% 4.5% 57.0% 59.7%
8  Iowa At-Large 58.5% 3.0% 55.6% 57.3%
8  Indiana At-Large 56.5% 2.9% 53.6% 55.2%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Missouri At-Large 55.5% 3.2% 52.2% 54.0%
9  Maryland At-Large 52.4% 2.1% 50.3% 51.4%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 56.1% 3.3% 52.8% 54.6%
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 65.8% 7.0% 58.8% 63.2%
10  Texas At-Large 51.7% 3.0% 48.7% 50.2%
10  Villanova At-Large 55.4% 6.0% 49.4% 52.6%
10  Vanderbilt At-Large 48.9% 2.3% 46.6% 47.7%
10  Clemson At-Large 51.4% 4.6% 46.8% 49.0%
10  Marquette At-Large 50.9% 5.1% 45.8% 48.2%
10  Virginia At-Large 49.6% 4.0% 45.6% 47.5%
11  Gonzaga Auto 78.7% 55.2% 23.6% 52.6%
11  San Diego St. Auto 56.4% 32.5% 23.9% 35.4%
11  Memphis Auto 45.1% 34.0% 11.2% 16.9%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 26.7% 19.7% 7.0% 8.7%
12  Illinois St. Auto 16.8% 16.0% 0.8% 1.0%
12  Liberty Auto 23.0% 22.4% 0.7% 0.8%
12  UC Irvine Auto 33.7% 33.3% 0.3% 0.5%
12  Yale Auto 41.5% 41.3% 0.2% 0.3%
13  McNeese St. Auto 49.7% 49.5% 0.1% 0.3%
13  Akron Auto 26.7% 26.6% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Troy Auto 17.9% 17.9% 0.1% 0.1%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 21.2% 21.1% 0.1% 0.2%
14  High Point Auto 36.7% 36.6% 0.1% 0.2%
14  Utah Valley Auto 35.5% 35.5% 0.0% 0.1%
14  Chattanooga Auto 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Montana St. Auto 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0%
15  St. Thomas Auto 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Florida Gulf Coast Auto 19.0% 19.0%
15  Youngstown St. Auto 15.4% 15.4%
15  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 32.4% 32.4%
16  Iona Auto 15.2% 15.2%
16  Southern Auto 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Vermont Auto 29.2% 29.2%
16  Colgate Auto 21.9% 21.9%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 35.6% 35.6%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 21.3% 21.3%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Arizona 86.5% 10.8% 75.7% 84.9%
UCLA 85.3% 9.5% 75.8% 83.8%
Illinois 85.2% 9.1% 76.1% 83.7%
Texas Tech 85.3% 10.1% 75.2% 83.6%
Kansas 85.1% 9.5% 75.6% 83.6%
Tennessee 81.3% 9.6% 71.6% 79.3%
Arkansas 79.2% 9.0% 70.3% 77.2%
Michigan St. 77.8% 6.0% 71.8% 76.4%
Iowa St. 77.0% 7.5% 69.5% 75.2%
Alabama 75.9% 8.1% 67.8% 73.8%
North Carolina 72.9% 9.7% 63.2% 70.0%
Wisconsin 71.2% 4.5% 66.7% 69.9%
Creighton 73.0% 11.0% 61.9% 69.6%
Ohio St. 69.7% 4.5% 65.2% 68.3%
Baylor 69.8% 4.9% 64.9% 68.3%
Auburn 70.0% 7.1% 62.9% 67.7%
Oregon 67.2% 4.1% 63.0% 65.7%
North Carolina St. 65.8% 7.0% 58.8% 63.2%
USC 64.2% 3.7% 60.6% 62.9%
Mississippi 61.5% 4.5% 57.0% 59.7%
Mississippi St. 60.5% 3.5% 57.0% 59.1%
Iowa 58.5% 3.0% 55.6% 57.3%
Indiana 56.5% 2.9% 53.6% 55.2%
Texas A&M 56.1% 3.3% 52.8% 54.6%
Missouri 55.5% 3.2% 52.2% 54.0%
Villanova 55.4% 6.0% 49.4% 52.6%
Maryland 52.4% 2.1% 50.3% 51.4%
Texas 51.7% 3.0% 48.7% 50.2%
Clemson 51.4% 4.6% 46.8% 49.0%
Marquette 50.9% 5.1% 45.8% 48.2%
Vanderbilt 48.9% 2.3% 46.6% 47.7%
Virginia 49.6% 4.0% 45.6% 47.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
SMU 47.2% 4.1% 43.1% 44.9%
Cincinnati 45.4% 2.1% 43.4% 44.3%
Washington 40.6% 1.3% 39.3% 39.8%
Oklahoma 40.8% 1.6% 39.1% 39.8%
Xavier 39.6% 3.4% 36.2% 37.5%
Georgia 33.4% 1.3% 32.2% 32.6%
LSU 32.2% 1.2% 31.0% 31.4%
Providence 29.0% 2.2% 26.9% 27.5%
Nebraska 27.8% 0.6% 27.2% 27.3%
Kansas St. 27.6% 0.9% 26.8% 27.0%
TCU 27.5% 0.8% 26.7% 26.9%
Notre Dame 28.0% 1.7% 26.3% 26.7%
West Virginia 27.0% 0.8% 26.1% 26.4%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 2.4% 25.1% 25.7%
Butler 27.1% 2.0% 25.1% 25.6%
Wake Forest 23.6% 1.4% 22.2% 22.5%
Syracuse 23.5% 1.4% 22.2% 22.5%
Georgetown 23.1% 1.9% 21.2% 21.6%
Arizona St. 21.3% 0.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Utah St. 32.9% 16.6% 16.3% 19.6%
Northwestern 19.3% 0.4% 19.0% 19.0%
Oklahoma St. 18.8% 0.4% 18.5% 18.5%
Central Florida 18.1% 0.4% 17.6% 17.7%
South Carolina 17.8% 0.5% 17.3% 17.4%
St. Mary's 34.7% 21.8% 12.9% 16.5%
Boise St. 28.7% 14.9% 13.8% 16.2%
Pittsburgh 16.4% 0.5% 15.9% 16.0%
Florida St. 15.5% 0.8% 14.7% 14.8%
Virginia Tech 14.8% 0.9% 13.9% 14.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rutgers 12.4% 0.2% 12.2% 12.2%
Colorado 12.4% 0.2% 12.2% 12.2%
Dayton 27.9% 18.2% 9.6% 11.8%
DePaul 11.9% 0.9% 11.0% 11.1%
Georgia Tech 11.3% 0.7% 10.6% 10.6%
Minnesota 9.9% 0.2% 9.8% 9.8%
Utah 9.7% 0.1% 9.6% 9.6%
Penn St. 9.5% 0.1% 9.3% 9.3%
Stanford 8.8% 0.4% 8.5% 8.5%
California 8.7% 0.5% 8.2% 8.2%
Seton Hall 7.5% 0.4% 7.1% 7.1%
UNLV 13.8% 7.4% 6.4% 6.9%
Boston College 7.0% 0.4% 6.6% 6.6%
Saint Louis 20.7% 15.3% 5.4% 6.3%
San Francisco 14.8% 9.1% 5.7% 6.2%
Grand Canyon 14.0% 8.3% 5.7% 6.2%
New Mexico 13.6% 8.1% 5.5% 6.0%
George Washington 13.8% 10.6% 3.3% 3.7%
Colorado St. 8.6% 5.4% 3.2% 3.4%
Nevada 7.5% 4.5% 3.1% 3.2%
Loyola Chicago 10.9% 8.1% 2.8% 3.0%
South Florida 14.1% 11.8% 2.3% 2.6%
Santa Clara 6.3% 4.0% 2.4% 2.4%
George Mason 9.4% 7.4% 2.0% 2.1%
North Texas 14.6% 12.8% 1.9% 2.1%
UAB 11.5% 10.0% 1.6% 1.7%
Saint Joseph's 7.1% 5.8% 1.3% 1.4%
Duquesne 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Tulane 7.8% 7.0% 0.8% 0.9%
Oregon St. 3.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Belmont 14.4% 13.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Seattle 3.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 13.4% 0.6% 0.7%
Wichita St. 6.4% 5.8% 0.6% 0.7%
Washington St. 2.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6%
Bradley 15.8% 15.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Drake 13.9% 13.4% 0.5% 0.5%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Missouri St. 15.5% 15.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Richmond 3.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 3.7% 3.3% 0.3% 0.4%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Temple 5.1% 4.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Rhode Island 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Murray St. 8.7% 8.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Southern Illinois 8.5% 8.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Wyoming 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Davidson 2.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2%
UC San Diego 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 0.2%
UC Santa Barbara 16.3% 16.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Tulsa 3.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2%
New Mexico St. 10.2% 10.1% 0.1% 0.2%
College of Charleston 19.6% 19.5% 0.1% 0.1%
East Carolina 2.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Louisiana Tech 8.8% 8.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 7.3% 7.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
San Diego 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 8.3% 0.1% 0.1%
UTEP 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Kent St. 17.3% 17.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
La Salle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
James Madison 17.5% 17.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Towson 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Rice 2.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Kentucky 6.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Arkansas St. 17.6% 17.5% 0.0% 0.1%
Hawaii 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Fordham 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (OH) 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Indiana St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 18.1% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 11.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%