Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
118 Utah Valley 35.5%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.8      +0.1 161 +2.7 98 69.8 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Abilene Christian 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.7      -2.9 252 +2.2 109 72.0 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 California Baptist 16.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 -1.2      -1.2 212 +0.1 164 65.1 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Texas Arlington 14.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.0      -0.3 171 -1.7 225 68.6 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Utah Tech 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.8      -2.8 249 -3.0 274 68.0 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Southern Utah 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -6.1      -3.8 283 -2.3 250 71.5 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Tarleton St. 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.1      -6.1 336 +0.1 163 64.6 279 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 2.2 47.7 21.9 13.3 7.7 5.2 2.8 1.4
Abilene Christian 3.1 21.1 22.6 18.2 15.0 10.8 7.9 4.4
California Baptist 3.3 18.8 20.6 18.8 16.1 12.4 8.5 4.8
Texas Arlington 3.6 14.9 17.7 18.6 16.7 13.9 10.9 7.4
Utah Tech 4.8 4.7 8.0 11.4 15.4 18.2 21.0 21.2
Southern Utah 4.9 4.5 8.0 11.5 14.4 18.0 20.6 23.1
Tarleton St. 4.9 4.6 8.0 11.0 14.7 18.1 21.2 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.6 5.7 7.6 9.4 11.3 12.8 12.6 11.2 8.8 6.4 2.6
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 8.5 10.1 11.0 11.3 10.7 9.5 7.4 5.6 3.4 1.4 0.4
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.0 6.1 7.7 8.9 11.4 10.8 11.3 10.1 8.7 6.9 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.3
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.3 8.8 10.0 11.1 11.1 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.7 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.6 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.2 10.4 12.3 11.2 10.2 9.3 7.4 5.4 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 11 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.4 9.4 10.9 11.5 10.8 10.4 8.7 7.2 5.3 4.1 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 7 - 11 0.9 2.9 5.0 7.5 9.4 11.1 11.3 11.5 10.4 8.5 6.9 5.5 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 47.7% 38.5 7.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 21.1% 15.2 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 18.8% 13.1 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 14.9% 10.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 4.7% 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 4.5% 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.6% 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 35.5% 35.5% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.4 8.9 10.1 7.3 3.9 1.6 64.5 0.1%
Abilene Christian 18.1% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.6 4.7 3.5 1.7 81.9 0.0%
California Baptist 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.3 83.2 0.0%
Texas Arlington 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 4.0 3.2 2.2 85.4 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.7 94.6 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 95.0 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 95.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 35.5% 0.9% 35.7% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 18.1% 1.0% 18.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 16.8% 1.2% 16.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 14.6% 1.3% 14.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.4% 1.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.0% 1.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.7% 0.9% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 94.9 2.3
2nd Round 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0