Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#92
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 5.2% 5.4% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 12.1% 12.6% 2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.6% 40.6% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.5% 38.5% 16.7%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 8.5
.500 or above 69.2% 70.7% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.1% 49.1% 27.7%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 7.4% 16.2%
First Four6.0% 6.1% 3.1%
First Round36.6% 37.6% 16.7%
Second Round21.6% 22.2% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 7.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.5% 0.9%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 38 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 237   Marist W 74-56 95%    
  Nov 06, 2025 344   Le Moyne W 89-63 99%    
  Nov 10, 2025 106   Santa Clara W 80-71 80%    
  Nov 14, 2025 34   @ Iowa L 75-81 30%    
  Nov 18, 2025 195   Old Dominion W 80-64 92%    
  Nov 21, 2025 52   Georgia W 73-72 51%    
  Nov 28, 2025 222   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 80-63 94%    
  Dec 01, 2025 345   St. Francis (PA) W 85-59 99%    
  Dec 05, 2025 45   Cincinnati W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 12, 2025 114   Missouri St. W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 17, 2025 25   Creighton L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 20, 2025 68   @ Georgetown L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 31, 2025 4   Connecticut L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 03, 2026 83   @ DePaul W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 07, 2026 43   @ Marquette L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 10, 2026 61   Providence W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 14, 2026 66   Butler W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 21, 2026 25   @ Creighton L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 24, 2026 8   St. John's L 73-78 35%    
  Jan 28, 2026 102   @ Seton Hall W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 31, 2026 83   DePaul W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 03, 2026 4   @ Connecticut L 63-77 12%    
  Feb 09, 2026 8   @ St. John's L 70-81 18%    
  Feb 14, 2026 43   Marquette W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 17, 2026 39   Villanova W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 21, 2026 66   @ Butler L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 24, 2026 61   @ Providence L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 68   Georgetown W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 03, 2026 102   Seton Hall W 72-63 77%    
  Mar 07, 2026 39   @ Villanova L 66-71 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 4.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 7.6 8.9 10.2 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 90.1% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 66.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 41.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.0% 99.7% 17.3% 82.4% 4.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 3.5% 99.6% 14.7% 84.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 5.0% 97.6% 12.5% 85.1% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 97.2%
13-7 6.9% 93.7% 6.6% 87.1% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 93.3%
12-8 8.3% 81.8% 4.0% 77.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.5 81.1%
11-9 10.0% 67.7% 3.1% 64.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.2 66.7%
10-10 10.9% 44.8% 2.0% 42.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.1 6.0 43.7%
9-11 11.1% 19.6% 1.2% 18.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.0 8.9 18.6%
8-12 10.2% 6.0% 0.6% 5.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.5 5.4%
7-13 8.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.7%
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 31.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
3-17 2.3% 2.3
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 39.6% 3.4% 36.2% 7.6 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.6 3.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 60.4 37.5%