Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
48 South Florida 100.0%   11   24 - 8 15 - 3 +11.6      +5.6 67 +6.0 39 76.8 17 +10.0 63 +11.5 1
70 Tulsa 2.5%   24 - 7 13 - 5 +8.6      +8.0 39 +0.6 147 69.0 160 +8.6 71 +7.6 3
84 Wichita St. 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 5 +6.9      +2.2 112 +4.7 60 66.2 244 +6.1 93 +7.8 2
124 UAB 0.0%   19 - 12 11 - 7 +2.5      +0.5 151 +2.0 120 72.4 76 +2.9 119 +4.5 4
128 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   16 - 15 9 - 9 +2.2      0.0 166 +2.3 116 73.0 63 +1.8 132 +1.2 5
129 Memphis 0.0%   13 - 19 8 - 10 +2.2      -0.9 190 +3.1 92 73.9 40 +0.9 141 +0.4 9
135 North Texas 0.0%   17 - 14 9 - 9 +1.7      -4.0 276 +5.6 43 63.6 310 +2.0 129 +0.6 6
151 Temple 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 10 +0.5      +1.4 131 -0.9 203 63.7 309 -1.2 185 -2.0 10
172 Charlotte 0.0%   16 - 17 9 - 9 -0.5      +2.9 98 -3.4 277 61.1 349 +0.1 154 +0.5 8
204 Tulane 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 -2.3      -1.2 199 -1.1 209 67.1 218 +1.0 137 +0.6 7
224 Rice 0.0%   11 - 18 7 - 11 -3.6      -0.4 177 -3.2 270 64.8 281 -3.7 231 -2.3 11
235 East Carolina 0.0%   10 - 20 6 - 12 -4.5      -3.2 261 -1.3 216 70.8 110 -5.6 251 -4.0 12
335 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   3 - 25 1 - 17 -12.2      -6.3 324 -5.9 327 71.1 106 -12.3 338 -15.7 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Mar 12 128 Florida Atlantic 70 135 North Texas 74   
Thu, Mar 12 172 Charlotte 74 204 Tulane 60   
Fri, Mar 13 172 Charlotte 83 124 UAB 78   
Fri, Mar 13 135 North Texas 84 70 Tulsa 90   
Sat, Mar 14 70 Tulsa 68 84 Wichita St. 81   
Sat, Mar 14 172 Charlotte 64 48 South Florida 86   
Sun, Mar 15 48 South Florida 70 84 Wichita St. 55   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 1.0 100.0
Wichita St. 2.0 100.0
Tulsa 2.0 100.0
UAB 4.0 100.0
North Texas 5.0 100.0
Charlotte 5.7 25.9 74.1
Florida Atlantic 5.7 25.9 74.1
Tulane 7.2 25.9 74.1
Memphis 8.3 74.1 25.9
Temple 8.3 74.1 25.9
Rice 11.0 100.0
East Carolina 12.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 13.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 15 - 3 24 - 8 100.0
Wichita St. 13 - 5 21 - 11 100.0
Tulsa 13 - 5 24 - 7 100.0
UAB 11 - 7 19 - 12 100.0
North Texas 10 - 9 18 - 14 25.9 74.1
Charlotte 9 - 9 16 - 17 100.0
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 16 - 15 100.0
Tulane 8 - 11 17 - 16 74.1 25.9
Memphis 8 - 10 13 - 19 100.0
Temple 8 - 10 15 - 16 100.0
Rice 7 - 11 11 - 18 100.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 10 - 20 100.0
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 100.0% 100.0
Wichita St.
Tulsa
UAB
North Texas
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Tulane
Memphis
Temple
Rice
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.1 1.5 21.0 74.2 3.4
Tulsa 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.7 0.8 0.0 97.5 2.5%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2
2nd Round 30.9% 0.3 69.1 30.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 30.7% 7.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 2.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%