Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 Gonzaga 95.0%   6   24 - 7 14 - 2 25 - 7 14 - 2 +15.3      +10.4 10 +4.8 41 72.2 76 +13.2 24 +14.3 2
21 St. Mary's 100.0%   6   25 - 7 15 - 1 26 - 7 15 - 1 +13.5      +6.1 45 +7.4 18 58.4 359 +11.9 35 +20.0 1
72 San Francisco 0.0%   22 - 10 11 - 5 22 - 10 11 - 5 +7.5      +2.9 102 +4.6 46 67.8 200 +6.8 87 +7.1 3
107 Santa Clara 0.0%   19 - 13 10 - 6 19 - 13 10 - 6 +4.6      +2.5 109 +2.1 115 72.1 80 +5.4 104 +5.2 4
180 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   11 - 19 5 - 11 11 - 19 5 - 11 -0.9      +1.8 129 -2.8 253 63.3 320 -4.8 255 -5.4 8
196 Pepperdine 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 11 11 - 20 5 - 11 -2.0      +0.5 166 -2.5 245 68.4 173 -5.2 265 -5.2 7
257 San Diego 0.0%   16 - 14 7 - 9 16 - 15 7 - 9 -5.0      -3.7 271 -1.3 212 75.8 32 +0.7 150 +0.1 5
286 Portland 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 11 10 - 21 5 - 11 -6.5      -1.3 215 -5.2 335 68.7 165 -4.3 244 -4.3 6
353 Pacific 0.0%   4 - 26 0 - 16 4 - 26 0 - 16 -15.0      -7.4 336 -7.6 356 70.4 118 -13.6 344 -19.2 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
San Francisco 3.0 100.0
Santa Clara 4.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 6.0 100.0
Pepperdine 6.0 100.0
San Diego 5.0 100.0
Portland 6.0 100.0
Pacific 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 100.0
St. Mary's 15 - 1 100.0
San Francisco 11 - 5 100.0
Santa Clara 10 - 6 100.0
Loyola Marymount 5 - 11 100.0
Pepperdine 5 - 11 100.0
San Diego 7 - 9 100.0
Portland 5 - 11 100.0
Pacific 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
San Francisco
Santa Clara
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
San Diego
Portland
Pacific


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 95.0% 0.0% 95.0% 6   0.2 2.9 22.5 26.8 18.8 10.8 8.0 4.3 0.7 5.0 95.0%
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.0 1.7 22.2 34.1 25.3 11.5 4.3 0.8 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 95.0% 1.9% 94.3% 64.9% 28.3% 13.0% 5.2% 2.0% 0.8%
St. Mary's 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 63.4% 24.6% 9.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 5.0 95.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 5.7 94.3
2nd Round 87.3% 1.3 12.7 46.4 40.9
Sweet Sixteen 46.1% 0.5 53.9 39.3 6.8
Elite Eight 21.4% 0.2 78.6 20.2 1.1
Final Four 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.2 0.1
Final Game 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1