Pre-tourney Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#45
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#47
Pace66.4#243
Improvement+2.5#75

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#58
First Shot+3.0#90
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks+3.9#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#102
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+3.8#29

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#33
First Shot+3.4#67
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#31
Layups/Dunks+0.9#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#4
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement-1.3#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 15.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.4% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.4% n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% n/a n/a
First Round85.3% n/a n/a
Second Round40.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen9.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight3.2% n/a n/a
Final Four0.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 16 - 5
Quad 23 - 49 - 9
Quad 33 - 112 - 10
Quad 48 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 72   San Francisco W 63-58 72%     1 - 0 +9.9 -3.9 +14.1
  Nov 19, 2023 36   @ Clemson L 68-85 37%     1 - 1 -2.7 +1.6 -4.5
  Nov 23, 2023 61   Virginia Tech L 75-82 57%     1 - 2 +2.0 +1.3 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2023 81   Virginia Commonwealth W 65-61 65%     2 - 2 +10.8 +2.8 +8.4
  Nov 26, 2023 63   Butler L 56-70 57%     2 - 3 -5.0 -10.2 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2023 21   St. Mary's W 63-60 40%     3 - 3 +16.5 +4.7 +12.1
  Dec 05, 2023 78   North Texas W 69-64 73%     4 - 3 +9.5 -1.3 +10.7
  Dec 12, 2023 325   Northwestern St. W 95-54 98%     5 - 3 +28.0 +28.7 +4.5
  Dec 17, 2023 225   Cal St. Fullerton W 88-65 93%     6 - 3 +17.1 +18.7 -0.4
  Dec 21, 2023 39   Washington St. L 61-66 48%     6 - 4 +6.4 -5.6 +12.0
  Dec 29, 2023 169   Utah Valley W 85-63 89%     7 - 4 +19.2 +15.6 +3.8
  Jan 05, 2024 231   @ San Jose St. W 78-69 86%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +8.1 +3.9 +4.4
  Jan 09, 2024 48   Colorado St. W 65-58 61%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +15.0 +0.6 +15.0
  Jan 12, 2024 41   @ Nevada W 64-56 38%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +21.9 -1.4 +23.5
  Jan 16, 2024 73   UNLV L 64-68 72%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +0.9 +1.2 -0.8
  Jan 20, 2024 28   San Diego St. W 67-66 52%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +11.3 +5.1 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2024 213   @ Fresno St. W 72-68 85%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +3.9 +10.7 -6.1
  Jan 27, 2024 52   Utah St. L 84-90 OT 63%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +1.5 +4.6 -2.4
  Jan 31, 2024 24   @ New Mexico W 86-78 32%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +23.7 +19.1 +4.5
  Feb 03, 2024 244   Air Force W 94-56 94%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +31.3 +33.2 +5.3
  Feb 06, 2024 48   @ Colorado St. L 62-75 41%     14 - 7 7 - 3 +0.2 +1.9 -3.1
  Feb 10, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 61-80 43%     14 - 8 7 - 4 -6.3 -3.6 -3.8
  Feb 17, 2024 213   Fresno St. W 90-66 93%     15 - 8 8 - 4 +18.7 +23.9 -2.7
  Feb 20, 2024 231   San Jose St. W 82-50 93%     16 - 8 9 - 4 +25.9 +9.9 +18.3
  Feb 24, 2024 151   @ Wyoming W 92-72 75%     17 - 8 10 - 4 +23.7 +22.3 +2.0
  Feb 27, 2024 244   @ Air Force W 79-48 87%     18 - 8 11 - 4 +29.5 +16.2 +18.5
  Mar 02, 2024 24   New Mexico W 89-79 51%     19 - 8 12 - 4 +20.5 +18.7 +1.6
  Mar 05, 2024 41   Nevada L 66-76 58%     19 - 9 12 - 5 -1.3 -1.8 +0.2
  Mar 08, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. W 79-77 OT 33%     20 - 9 13 - 5 +17.5 +13.1 +4.3
  Mar 14, 2024 24   New Mexico L 66-76 41%     20 - 10 +3.1 -2.8 +6.3
  Mar 20, 2024 29   Colorado L 72-74 42%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 85.4% 85.4% 7.5 1.3 13.8 26.8 29.6 12.1 1.8 0.0 14.6 85.4%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.4% 0.0% 85.4% 7.5 1.3 13.8 26.8 29.6 12.1 1.8 0.0 14.6 85.4%