Pre-tourney Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2025-26
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.4 233
Results Rating -3.0 216
Consistency 0.15 151
Pace 66.0 248
Improvement +5.4 27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 271 D+ C- D C- D
Defense C 194 D B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 40 C- 56% 246 +2.2 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 4 B- 41% 91 +5.2 10
Three Pointers 24% 365 D- 30% 336 -10.4 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 317 C- -1.8 244
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 265
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 110 D- 0.91 334 C- 0.29 211
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 335
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 220
Turnovers D 18.9% 319
Freethrows D+ 0.28 257 B 76% 48 C- 0.21 213
Total Offense D+ -3.8 271

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 117 D- 14.4% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 148 C+ 4.2% 123
Three Pointers B- 88% 86 C+ 0.7% 143
Total D+ 50% 293 F 7.9% 349


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 81 C- 60% 235 +3.2 290
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 287 C+ 37% 146 -1.4 74
Three Pointers 40% 205 F+ 38% 343 +2.2 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 301 D +3.1 306
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 314
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 144 B 0.93 42 B- 0.27 73
Turnovers from Steals B 11.4% 47
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 239
Turnovers B- 18.2% 80
Freethrows D+ 0.34 287 C 72% 184 D+ 0.24 275
Total Defense C -0.6 194

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 41 C 11.6% 144
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 16 B- 6.4% 86
Three Pointers B- 80% 75 D+ 0.3% 304
Total B 50% 65 C+ 6.2% 134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 213 17.5 216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 120 0.17 168
Consistency 0.11 108 0.13 224
Improvement +4.3 21 +1.1 131

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 233 233 233
Results Rating Rank 216 216 216
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 83 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 167 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 25% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -32 F -25 F F F D- -7 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 204 @Tulane L 71 - 79 31% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -0 D+ B+ C+ D- -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 335 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 84% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F A- B C -1 B- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 317 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 79% +12  97% 2 - 2 C- -3 D -5 D+ A+ F B- +2 D+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 249 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 64% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +6 D- -7 D D- F A+ +14 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 21 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 76% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -3 F -11 B- F F A +9 B+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 120 Seattle L 52 - 66 25% -5  9% 4 - 3 D -11 D- -8 C- F D D -6 F A D
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 61% +1  50% 4 - 4 D -11 D -5 D C- F D- -7 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 224 @Rice L 72 - 77 36% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ F C- C- -3 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 278 Southern W 86 - 83 70% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -7 D -5 A- F F C- -2 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 146 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 42% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 206 South Alabama W 67 - 65 54% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -6 F A C- B- +3 C+ B A-
 Wed, Dec 31 143 @Troy L 80 - 100 22% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -16 B+ +9 C+ A+ D F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 76% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -3 F A D D+ -4 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 213 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 34% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D -10 F+ -10 F C- C- C+ +1 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 146 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 22% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C -0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A B
 Wed, Jan 14 300 Louisiana W 59 - 54 75% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -7 F -12 B F F+ B+ +6 B B C
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 56% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C +1 D -4 C D- F B+ +5 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 239 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 40% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -4 C- -2 F D A+ C- -2 C B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 209 @James Madison L 57 - 82 32% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -25 F -13 F F B- F -14 F D C
 Wed, Jan 28 202 Marshall W 72 - 68 53% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C -1 D- -8 D+ B- D B+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 243 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 64% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +9 C+ +2 C+ D- B+ A- +7 A C A
 Wed, Feb 4 230 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 37% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +5 C- -1 F A+ C B+ +6 C- A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 276 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 69% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +6 C+ +2 B D D- B+ +6 C+ C A-
 Wed, Feb 11 143 Troy W 74 - 62 41% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +10 B- +5 A D+ F B+ +6 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 84 89% +6  93% 15 - 11 9 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +18 A A+ A F -23 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 206 @South Alabama W 90 - 82 OT 31% +3  68% 16 - 11 10 - 6 B +9 A +12 A D- B D+ -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 300 @Louisiana L 54 - 67 54% -11  0% 16 - 12 10 - 7 F -19 F -13 F C+ F D- -7 F F A
 Fri, Feb 27 190 Appalachian St. W 60 - 57 51% -2  26% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C -2 D- -7 B- F C- B+ +6 A- C A+
 Fri, Mar 6 213 Southern Miss L 77 - 81 45% -3  7% 17 - 13 D+ -7 C+ +3 C- A- C F+ -10 F A+ D
Totals 17 - 13 11 - 7 -4 D+ -4 F C- D C -1 D- B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- B- D- C- 44% 65% 24% D D+ C+ D- C- D D+ B C- C C- C+ F+ D 42% 17% 40% D D C+ B B- B- D+ C D+
1.03 56% 41% 30% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 19% .28 76% .21 1.10 60% 37% 38% +3 +1 1.10 29% 0.9 .27 18% .34 72% .20
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ A- C+ B B B+
0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C- F D A+ D 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B+ C+ F A+ D D- D+ A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ F+ F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B+ B- A- B A+ B+ A+ C B B- A+ B+ 48% 12% 40% F B- B+ F+ C+ D+ F C- F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D B- C- D D+ 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B- C F+ A- D+ 47% 29% 24% C- D+ D+ A+ B+ A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D- F F+ A+ D- 56% 26% 18% C D A+ F D- F B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F C+ D- A F+ A+ B
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C+ C+ B 51% 24% 24% C- B- B- F F F B F D+ A A+ A C+ A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ A- A F C- F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle D- B- C+ F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C- B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A+ A D D+ A+ B-
0.85 58% 40% 22% -3 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B+ C- C+ 33% 54% 13% F D A F C- F A+ B A+ D- B- D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C A+ A+ C A- A+ A+
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +14 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C- B- C 35% 44% 21% F+ D+ B F F C- C C C C- F B- A+ B 23% 27% 50% C+ B D F F B- F F F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D B- B A+ B+ 53% 15% 32% A- A- C- F F F A+ D+ A+ C- D- C F F 26% 31% 43% A- F C B- C+ A+ C C C
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F D+ B C C D+ A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F+ F F A+ D D+ D-
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B+ F F 38% 16% 47% C+ F A+ D A C- A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F A+ B 56% 13% 31% F C+ B C+ B A- F C+ F+
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A+ B- 40% 27% 33% D+ C+ A A A+ D D+ F D F F+ A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe D+ D+ B- F F 49% 31% 20% D- F A- B A D D- D D- D+ F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B B B B+
1.15 59% 44% 25% -1 0 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F+ F B F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C- C- C- C- F D C+ F B+ C+ D 41% 36% 23% B- D+ A- B- B+ C+ D+ C- D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D- C- D+ A+ A+ F C- A+ B- B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D B F A+ A B F D- F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F C+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F F+ F F F B+ A A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B C F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D F A+ A C 49% 21% 31% C+ C D F D- F A+ A+ A+ B+ B F A+ C+ 38% 34% 28% B- C+ A+ B- A+ C+ D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina C- F A- F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C F D A+ B- A+ A+ C- F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C C B+ B- B+ D- F D+ F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F C- F F B- B- C- C+ F C- F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall D- F+ F A+ D 48% 24% 28% B- D+ D A+ B- D C- D D+ B+ D- B- A+ B 40% 25% 35% D B- A+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C- C- A+ B- 39% 33% 27% F+ C+ C+ F D- B+ B+ A- A A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% F A F A+ C A F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +3 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B- A+ A+ C B- A+ A B+ B- F B D+ 39% 14% 47% C+ C- A+ F+ A D+ D B- D+
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C+ B+ A A A 36% 32% 32% F B D+ D D D- F A+ F+ B+ A+ F+ D C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ C- C+ C A- A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ C- D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ A C+ B 26% 18% 56% A+ B+ C- A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41
Feb
14		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C A+ A+ A 55% 25% 21% C A A+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D- F B- F F F 48% 13% 39% F F F D+ F C D A+ C
1.48 62% 77% 45% +15 +1 1.34 57% 1.5 .87 11% .19 73% .14 1.31 50% 67% 56% +13 +2 1.30 38% 1.1 .41 17% .36 63% .23
Feb
19		 South Alabama A A- A A+ A+ 20% 34% 46% F A C F D- B A+ D+ A+ D+ F D- F F 48% 13% 39% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ D C
1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39 1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 Louisiana F F+ F+ F F 30% 43% 28% F F A F C+ F B- B+ B D- A- C F F 28% 41% 31% B F D F F A F D- F
0.90 50% 29% 18% -13 -3 0.70 41% 0.9 .35 25% .40 78% .31 1.12 45% 38% 67% +11 -3 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 22% .41 74% .30
Feb
27		 Appalachian St. D- D+ A+ B+ A- 40% 43% 17% F B- F F F C- C+ F D+ B+ C D+ A+ A 36% 11% 53% D A- F A+ C A+ F A+ D-
0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17 0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25
Mar
6		 Southern Miss C+ B- B- C- C+ 43% 45% 12% F C- A C+ A- C C- A+ B+ F+ F+ D- F F 45% 38% 17% B- F A A+ A+ D F C- F
1.12 62% 41% 33% +3 -3 1.02 38% 1.1 .41 17% .35 85% .30 1.17 68% 44% 43% +9 -2 1.17 23% 0.7 .15 16% .64 76% .48



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%