Pre-tourney Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#130
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#119
Pace63.9#308
Improvement-1.1#233

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#67
First Shot+1.8#131
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#24
Layup/Dunks-6.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows+2.8#32
Improvement+1.1#124

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot-1.9#241
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#219
Layups/Dunks-2.0#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-1.4#279
Improvement-2.1#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 411 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 166   @ UNC Asheville W 83-66 50%     1 - 0 +19.5 +7.4 +11.4
  Nov 20, 2023 161   Murray St. W 83-81 OT 59%     2 - 0 +2.2 +6.9 -4.7
  Nov 21, 2023 86   Appalachian St. L 56-86 34%     2 - 1 -23.3 -8.7 -16.1
  Nov 25, 2023 228   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 71-55 62%     3 - 1 +15.2 +6.5 +10.6
  Nov 30, 2023 177   @ East Carolina L 66-74 53%     3 - 2 -6.3 +0.3 -7.3
  Dec 02, 2023 16   @ Kentucky W 80-73 9%     4 - 2 +24.4 +4.0 +19.8
  Dec 16, 2023 259   @ Georgia Southern W 82-77 68%     5 - 2 +2.5 +14.1 -11.0
  Dec 21, 2023 236   @ Marshall W 78-69 64%     6 - 2 +7.9 +5.7 +2.1
  Dec 30, 2023 104   @ Arkansas L 90-106 31%     6 - 3 -8.4 +13.4 -20.6
  Jan 04, 2024 136   @ Drexel L 63-78 42%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -10.5 -7.0 -3.7
  Jan 06, 2024 150   @ Towson L 64-67 45%     6 - 5 0 - 2 +0.7 +8.1 -8.0
  Jan 11, 2024 200   Monmouth W 69-56 76%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +8.3 -0.3 +9.8
  Jan 14, 2024 181   Delaware W 79-74 72%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +1.4 +5.5 -4.0
  Jan 18, 2024 318   @ Elon W 82-70 80%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +5.4 +10.2 -4.0
  Jan 20, 2024 100   College of Charleston W 78-69 50%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +11.6 +8.7 +3.4
  Jan 25, 2024 250   @ Northeastern W 77-54 66%     11 - 5 5 - 2 +21.1 +13.6 +11.0
  Jan 27, 2024 174   @ Stony Brook L 78-86 OT 52%     11 - 6 5 - 3 -6.1 +0.6 -6.2
  Feb 01, 2024 100   @ College of Charleston W 80-74 30%     12 - 6 6 - 3 +13.8 +9.7 +4.2
  Feb 03, 2024 309   Campbell W 77-74 89%     13 - 6 7 - 3 -7.9 +10.5 -17.9
  Feb 08, 2024 136   Drexel W 75-56 62%     14 - 6 8 - 3 +18.3 +9.3 +11.0
  Feb 10, 2024 338   @ Hampton W 95-65 87%     15 - 6 9 - 3 +20.4 +21.6 -0.4
  Feb 15, 2024 347   N.C. A&T W 73-54 95%     16 - 6 10 - 3 +3.0 +3.3 +2.4
  Feb 17, 2024 318   Elon L 72-73 90%     16 - 7 10 - 4 -12.8 +0.0 -12.9
  Feb 22, 2024 313   @ William & Mary W 81-65 80%     17 - 7 11 - 4 +9.7 +14.1 -2.5
  Feb 26, 2024 309   @ Campbell L 100-105 2OT 78%     17 - 8 11 - 5 -10.7 +7.4 -17.3
  Feb 29, 2024 122   Hofstra L 58-69 58%     17 - 9 11 - 6 -10.7 -2.5 -10.4
  Mar 02, 2024 150   Towson W 75-64 65%     18 - 9 12 - 6 +9.5 +13.6 -2.7
  Mar 10, 2024 150   Towson L 56-66 55%     18 - 10 -8.9 -5.3 -5.1
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%